The GOP’s strategy for re-taking control of the House is to hope that as many as 17 Democrats retire from their positions in Congress. Among those identified on the “Dem Retirement Assault List” compiled by the National Republican Congressional Committee are Arkansas congressmen Vic Snyder, Marion Berry and Mike Ross.

I guess the RNCC doesn’t have much faith in Tim Griffin or Scott Wallace, two Republicans vying for the GOP nomination to challenge Mr. Snyder in 2010. Mr. Ross and Mr. Berry do not have credible opponents, and won’t.

Michael Tomasky, writing in The New York Review of Books, offers a comprehensive look at the political evolution of the Blue Dog coalition in the U.S. House. Arkansas Rep. Mike Ross, who has emerged during the health care debate as a leading Blue Dog spokesman, gets a lot of ink.

Here’s a gem:

But for the vast majority of members of Congress, once you’ve been elected and reelected once or twice, it takes either a pretty big scandal or a rare historical tidal wave (as in 1994) to produce defeat. Members know this—in fact, they typically know exactly how many percentage points a certain vote might cost them at the polls. One begins to suspect that some Blue Dogs don’t really fear losing as much as they fear facing a semicredible opponent and actually having to campaign hard for a change.

The House will convene in about thirty minutes and begin the process of considering the health care bill. A vote is expected sometime late this afternoon or this evening. Politico has a synopsis of how the day will unfold.

Jason Tolbert noted earlier that Arkansas Reps. Mike Ross and John Boozman are expected to vote No on the bill. Politico lists Mr. Ross as a solid No vote. Reps. Vic Snyder and Marion Berry have yet to state their position publicly.

Mr. Tolbert and I will discuss the health care vote tomorrow morning on my radio show. Tune in.

Mike Ross may be for a public option after all. Today, The Hill quotes the Arkansas congressman as saying the following,

I — speaking only on behalf of myself — suggested one possible idea could be that instead of creating an entirely new government bureaucracy to administer a public option, Medicare could be offered as a choice.

Or maybe not. Mr. Ross went on to say that he does not “endorse” this idea, but that it is one of many ideas being discussed among legislators.

A new poll conducted by Research 2000 shows that more Arkansans living in the 4th Congressional District support a public option than oppose it.

QUESTION: Do you favor or oppose creating a government-administered health insurance option that anyone can purchase to compete with private insurance plans?

FAVOR OPPOSE NOT SURE
ALL 47 44 9
MEN 44 48 8
WOMEN 50 40 10
DEMOCRATS 74 19 7
REPUBLICANS 13 77 10
INDEPENDENTS 47 43 10
WHITE 38 55 7
BLACK 77 8 15
18-29 50 41 9
30-44 48 45 7
45-59 47 44 9
60+ 44 45 11

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com asks the question in light of Arkansas Rep. Mike Ross’s stated opposition to a public option as part of health care reform. Writes Mr. Silver,

Ross may well have gotten a significant number of letters and e-mails against the public option. He may have hosted a town hall forum before an audience who was skeptical of such a provision. But if Ross had actually polled his district, it’s unlikely he would have found overwhelming opposition to the public option. Instead, he might even have found a that a plurality or majority of his constituents supported the public plan.

He further argues that there is a direct correlation between support for the public option and poverty.

While Arkansas-4 does not have a lot of Obama voters, it does have a lot of people in poverty: 20.5 percent of its population, which ranks it 50th out of the 435 Congressional Districts. It is basically like an exaggerated version of Kentucky where, according to the Research 2000 poll, 46 percent support the public option and 45 percent oppose it. That the public option is “overwhelmingly” unpopular in such a district is unlikely.

Using logistic regression, Mr. Silver and his team have forecasted where support for a public option lies, and the data is broken down by congressional district.

Here are the numbers for Arkansas,

AR – 1 48% (Favor), 42% (Unfavor)
AR – 2 45% (Favor), 44% (Unfavor)
AR – 3 34% (Favor), 54% (Unfavor)
AR – 4 49% (Favor), 41% (Unfavor)

UPDATE: A few of the posts in the comments section note, Daily Kos via Research 2000, a non-partisan polling group, is going to look into polling the 4th district and other blue dog districts to determine whether Mr. Silver’s numbers are accurate. Like I said below, Mr. Silver’s built his reputation on his statistical analysis and extrapolation, so I think it’s worth taking serious stock in his numbers.

Arkansas Rep. Mike Ross appeared on CNN yesterday to discuss health insurance reform. According to The Hill, when prompted with his position on the bill he replied that he was against imposed government-run health insurance; that he was for policy holders being able to maintain their current plans and choose their own doctor; no federal funding for illegal immigrants or abortions; and no rationing of health care.

But then he went on to say,

I will never vote for a bill to kill old people, period.

Yikes. If the public is truly of the impression that all of this “death panel” talk is a legitimate outcome of health insurance reform then Democrats have really been knocked off their axis. As I’ve noted in previous posts, there’s nothing to this idea whatsoever, and there is nothing in the bill or in President Barack Obama’s plan that would create such a scenario.

Even Ross Douthat, the conservative voice on the op-ed pages of The New York Times, recognizes this.

The controversy over “death panels” is just the most extreme manifestation of this debate. Obviously, the Democratic plans wouldn’t euthanize your grandmother.

He continues,

And if you think reform is tough today, just wait. We’re already practically a gerontocracy: Americans over 50 cast over 40 percent of the votes in the 2008 elections, and half the votes in the ’06 midterms. As the population ages — by 2030, there will be more Americans over 65 than under 18 — the power of the elderly and nearly elderly may become almost absolute.

In this future, somebody will need to stand for the principle that Medicare can’t pay every bill and bless every procedure. Somebody will need to defend the younger generation’s promise (and its pocketbooks). Somebody will need to say “no” to retirees.

Yet, Democrats are stuck on a issue that doesn’t even exist; one that began as a senseless accusation on Sarah Palin’s Facebook page. Thumbs up to social media for its continued influence, but let’s be honest. If these are the questions that Democrats continue to respond to rather that the broader issues of how this will help us all (some more in the short-term, others in the long-term), then maybe health insurance reform, like health care reform in 1994, will be a dream deferred. And it may be decades before another president – Democrat or Republican – tries again.

Who wins then?

WSJ Covers Ross Town Hall

The Wall Street Journal covers the  health care town hall hosted by Rep. Mike Ross, leader of the Blue Dog coalition, earlier this week.

Mr. Ross seemed lukewarm about a public-option alternative to private health plans, an element that many Democrats consider crucial to any health-care overhaul. He said it was “50-50 at best whether it will be included in the final bill.” But he told the crowd that if a public plan was included, “it won’t be forced on anyone.”

It’s been a good national media day for Arkansas congressman Mike Ross. Mr. Ross, a leader of the Blue Dog Coalition in the U.S. House of Representatives, took the lead in negotiating certain aspects of President Barack Obama’s health care reform plan with House leadership.

Today, he is featured in this piece The Washington Post under the headline, “A Blue Dog With Time and Clout on His Side.”

. . . the low-key five-term legislator became a force to reckon with in negotiating the bill’s details with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and the White House. And on Wednesday, after signing off on a deal that ended two weeks of gridlock, Ross said the most important concession the Blue Dog Democrats won with their effort was time.

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It was only a matter of time before a national columnist wondered why President Barack Obama wasn’t calling on former President Bill Clinton to help manage Arkansas Rep. Mike Ross, a member of the Blue Dog coalition of Democrats that play a critical role in health care reform. Tina Brown of The Daily Beast filed that column today, and she notes,

Surely it’s the former president who got it wrong once who has spent the most time and lost the most sleep thinking over how he would do it again. More important, wouldn’t Bubba do a better job than the professorial Obama at sweet-talking, arm wrestling, hug, and head locking members of such obstructive Blue Dogs as Arkansas Rep. Mike Ross, who used to run a family drugstore just like the one Bill remembers from his years growing up in Hot Springs?

But the headline grabber will be this: Ms. Brown quotes Mr. Clinton as saying with regards to President Obama, “Sure, he calls me every few weeks,” the former president told a person I know. “But it feels as if, you know, he’s just checking a box.”

Nobel prize-winning economist and NY Times op-ed columnist Paul Krugman has a well-articulated piece in today’s edition of the Times. In it he explores the role the Blue Dog Coalition of conservative Democrats are playing in the current health care reform efforts in Washington. The entire column is worth reading, but this struck me as particularly powerful,

After all, today’s Blue Dogs are politicians who didn’t go the Tauzin route — they didn’t switch parties even when the G.O.P. seemed to hold all the cards and pundits were declaring the Republican majority permanent. So these are Democrats who, despite their relative conservatism, have shown some commitment to their party and its values.

Now, however, they face their moment of truth. For they can’t extract major concessions on the shape of health care reform without dooming the whole project: knock away any of the four main pillars of reform, and the whole thing will collapse — and probably take the Obama presidency down with it. (emphasis added)

Is that what the Blue Dogs really want to see happen? We’ll soon find out.

The Huffington Post is currently running the above on its front page. Today, President Barack Obama held an invitation-only conference call with a handful of prominent progressive bloggers for twenty-five minutes to discuss health care.  

Noted Mr. Obama,

“I know the blogs are best at debunking myths that can slip through a lot of the traditional media outlets,” he said. “And that is why you are going to play such an important role in our success in the weeks to come.”

Is Arkansas in play for Obama?

Andrew DeMillo files a story with AP about Barack Obama’s chances in Arkansas. He talks with Gov. Mike Beebe, Rep. Mike Ross and Sen. Mark Pryor about it.

Could Obama win Arkansas? My view: Yes. I’ve already written about the many reasons why.

On the other side, Doug Thompson of the Arkansas News Bureau says that John McCain locked up Arkansas when he picked Sarah Palin as his running mate. The Arkansas Project has also argued why Arkansas is a tough battle for Obama.

Former House Majority Leader Richard Gephart and Congressman Mike Ross will headline the Clean Coal Technology Conference being held July 17-18 at the University of Arkansas Community College at Hope.  According to Amy Riggin of Arkansas Business, “The conference details the state’s role in the development and deployment of advanced clean coal technologies and the associated environmental, economic and public policy concerns.”

Jim Lendall, in his post in the comments section below, informs the Think Tank that the Green Party of Arkansas has nominated three candidates to run for federal office.  They’re fielding a candidate in the U.S. Senate race against Mark Pryor as well as candidates in the third and fourth congressional districts.

The Arkansas Republican Party wasn’t able to field a candidate against Pryor or against Mike Ross in the fourth congressional district (not to mention against Vic Snyder or Marion Berry).