With House Speaker Nancy Pelosi firmly behind a public option as part of comprehensive health insurance reform, this is likely to come down to votes in the Senate, notes Timothy Noah of Slate.
If the public option gets dropped, the likely reason won’t be a lack of commitment in the White House so much as a lack of votes in the Senate.
Chris Bowers of OpenLeft.com is whipping votes. His count has 43 senators in favor of a public option. He sees 20 senators on the fence, including both Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor.
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com narrows the list of Democratic probables. he expresses concern that Sen. Ted Kennedy’s declining health and Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s support of health co-ops may mean they will not vote in favor of the bill. So he has the number at 41. He sees five more votes from Sens. Johnson (SD), Byrd (WV), Klobuchar (MN), Wyden (OR) and Kohl (WI) for a total of 46. That means the Dems are 4 votes shy of the necessary 50 votes (Vice President Joe Biden will break the tie in favor).
Mr. Silver narrows the list of swing votes to 7. His list includes both Sens. Lincoln and Pryor, along with Sens. Begich (AK), Tester (MT), Baucus (MT), Nelson (FL) and Snowe (ME).
He also notes that if the bill that comes out of conference does not contain a public option, it is unlikely that any amendment containing it would sustain a filibuster.
Thus, for those of you following this closely, a public option is alive if it’s in the original, unamended bill that hits the Senate floor. This means that it must be endorsed by the Senate Finance committee of which Sen. Lincoln in a member. If this happens, you can expect that will pass the Senate because four of the swing votes in the Senate are also the swing votes on the committee (Lincoln, Nelson, Snowe, Baucus).
For those of you wondering how pivotal a role Sen. Pryor and Sen. Lincoln (particularly) play in health care reform I hope this is helpful.
Oh, and watch for more talk about member-owned non-profit health insurance co-ops as an alternative to the public option. I’m with Bob Herbert that these will amount to nothing, but they have early political support it would appear.