In light of a new ruling by the Environmental Protection Agency, Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor said yesterday that he may re-think his position on cap and trade legislation.

“I’ve always been reluctant on cap and trade, but it (the EPA ruling) might put that in a different light,” Pryor said in a conference call with reporters. “I’ll just have to look at that and really spend some time reflecting on that and talking to not just colleagues but talking to people who really understand this and see if that does change my view on cap-and-trade.”

The EPA ruling determined that greenhouse gas emissions were a threat to public health.

In June of this year the House passed cap and trade legislation. It has yet to come before the Senate. Arkansas’s other senator, Blanche Lincoln, remains opposed to the bill.

Catching Up

I’ve been out of town for the better part of two days and I’m just now reading that Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor clearly stated that he would vote for the cloture motion which would advance the bill to debate in the Senate. Good for him.

Senator Blanche Lincoln still remains on the fence. (I loved this op-ed in The New York Times from Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com.)

Tomorrow, Little Rock hosts a free health clinic at the Statehouse Convention Center from noon to 7pm. Lt. Gov. Bill Halter has been a strong proponent of the clinic and this landed him a spot on “Countdown with Keith Olbermann” a few nights ago. The health clinic has signed up 1,200 medical volunteers, and anticipates being able to serve 1,500 patients.

The American Farm Bureau has taken aim at the pending Cap and Trade bill in the US Senate (it’s already passed the House). According to The New York Times,

In a memo today obtained by Green Inc., addressed to state farm bureau directors, the group’s public-relations director, Don Lipton, wrote:

Climate change bills in both the Senate and House will impact our farmers and ranchers, hit America’s consumers and impair the economy of our nation. For farmers and ranchers, it will mean higher fuel and fertilizer costs, which puts us at a competitive disadvantage in international markets with other countries that do not have similar carbon emission restrictions. For the future prosperity of the U.S. economy and American agriculture, climate change legislation must be defeated by Congress.

Arkansas Farm Bureau isn’t going to have to do as much work on this. Sen. Blanche Lincoln has stated her opposition to the climate change bill. We haven’t heard from Sen. Mark Pryor . . . yet.

Those following the health insurance reform issue in Washington have been eagerly awaiting a plan from Senate Finance committee chairman Max Baucus of Montana, a Democrat. The plan was released with a decent amount of fanfare and Democrats and Republicans have begun to weigh in. (Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln, also a member of the Finance committee, and I discussed health insurance reform on my radio program a few weeks back.) This bill will be the jumping off point for the Senate where 60 votes may be needed to pass. Progress has already been on this front in the House.

I can’t tell from this report by Paul Barton as to what Sen. Lincoln’s opinion on the bill is. It sounds favorable. Jason Tolbert of The Tolbert Report notes that she’ll be making some amendments. Any word from Sen. Mark Pryor?

Obviously the biggest point of contention between the House and Senate is the public option. You can read more on that and other distinctions between the bills below.

Here are some details about the Baucus plan:

1) Lower costs that previously released plans, or budget neutrality. The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities notes, “it is budget neutral — that is, its costs are fully offset. It pays for the costs of expanding health coverage to the uninsured by redirecting spending and tax subsidies from less productive uses elsewhere in the health sector.”

2) Creates health insurance exchanges. This would create marketplaces for large pools of individuals and companies to opt in and have health insurance companies bid for their services (think Lending Tree, of the television commercials). This plan allows for business with 1-50 employees to buy into the exchanges from the start (the House bill allowed for business with up to 20 employees). States will be given the ability to allow larger business to participate if they so choose. Over time, businesses of all sizes will be allowed to participate.

3) Eliminates the ability for health insurance companies to deny coverage or charge higher premiums because of a preexisting condition.

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I’ll be on KARK Channel 4 tomorrow morning at 6:15 a.m. to discuss health insurance reform. I know the Family Council (Jerry Cox, I assume) will be there, too. Should be interesting. Tune in.

With House Speaker Nancy Pelosi firmly behind a public option as part of comprehensive health insurance reform, this is likely to come down to votes in the Senate, notes Timothy Noah of Slate.

If the public option gets dropped, the likely reason won’t be a lack of commitment in the White House so much as a lack of votes in the Senate.

Chris Bowers of OpenLeft.com is whipping votes. His count has 43 senators in favor of a public option. He sees 20 senators on the fence, including both Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor.

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com narrows the list of Democratic probables. he expresses concern that Sen. Ted Kennedy’s declining health and Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s support of health co-ops may mean they will not vote in favor of the bill. So he has the number at 41. He sees five more votes from Sens. Johnson (SD), Byrd (WV), Klobuchar (MN), Wyden (OR) and Kohl (WI) for a total of 46. That means the Dems are 4 votes shy of the necessary 50 votes (Vice President Joe Biden will break the tie in favor).

Mr. Silver narrows the list of swing votes to 7. His list includes both Sens. Lincoln and Pryor, along with Sens. Begich (AK), Tester (MT), Baucus (MT), Nelson (FL) and Snowe (ME).

He also notes that if the bill that comes out of conference does not contain a public option, it is unlikely that any amendment containing it would sustain a filibuster.

Thus, for those of you following this closely, a public option is alive if it’s in the original, unamended bill that hits the Senate floor. This means that it must be endorsed by the Senate Finance committee of which Sen. Lincoln in a member. If this happens, you can expect that will pass the Senate because four of the swing votes in the Senate are also the swing votes on the committee (Lincoln, Nelson, Snowe, Baucus).

For those of you wondering how pivotal a role Sen. Pryor and Sen. Lincoln (particularly) play in health care reform I hope this is helpful.

Oh, and watch for more talk about member-owned non-profit health insurance co-ops as an alternative to the public option. I’m with Bob Herbert that these will amount to nothing, but they have early political support it would appear.

The Lonely Misfits after the Rex Nelson party

It’s Friday and I’ve received a few comments from readers wondering where all of the round-ups have gone. More specifically, they’re missing the quote of the day, e-mail of the day and text of the day. Okay, fine, I generally bow to peer pressure so here you go. I’m not sure I’ll be blogging much this weekend, so deal with it. What will I be doing? I have no idea. But I am going to see this.

Let’s get on with it:

Why Do People Run for the Arkansas Legislature?: I don’t know, but Mike Fletcher, a Democrat from Hot Springs, announced that he’s running for State Senate District 27 previously occupied by Sen. Steve Faris who is term-limited.

Pay Me My Money: House speaker Robbie Wills and super blogger Jason Tolbert spar online over the salaries paid out to lottery personnel. Max Brantley of the Arkansas Times weighs in on this, too.

Undecided, Huh?: Sen. Mark Pryor says he’s “leaning” towards supporting Judge Sonia Sotomayor for the US Supreme Court. Sen. Blanche Lincoln says she’s still undecided. Summa Cum Laude from Princeton. Yale Law (An editor of the Yale Law Journal). On the federal bench since 1991 (nominated first by George H.W. Bush). Hell, she saved baseball. Republicans Richard Lugar, Olympia Snowe and Mel Martinez have indicated they will support her. Jason Tolbert shot  his mouth off on Twitter exclaiming that Republicans were nice during the confirmation hearings. The heat must be getting to him.

Rex is Bloggin’: Everybody’s All-Arkansas, Rex Nelson, is blogging. They threw a party for him this week a Whitewater Tavern. It was a who’s-who crowd of political and media people. They served free beer and barbecue, which guaranteed that the Lonely Misfits Drinking Society would show up. I rapped with Paul Greenberg about the Red Sox which was a lot of fun for him. Arkansas Project Girlfriend put in an appearance I’m told.

Kim Hendren Is An Idiot: He mouths off again. As I wrote in my original post it’s time for this guy to get out of politics.

Sunday Reading: I have a brief piece in Sunday’s Arkansas Democrat Gazette about the worst book I’ve read this year. I didn’t pick on any of the writers that we all know suck. I took on a heavyweight. Kane Webb put it together before he announced he’d be leaving the paper for a teaching gig at Catholic High School. The paper will be worse for it. The boys at CHS won’t.

Kinda Funny: I generally find Zack Stovall to be a re-tard, but this made me laugh.

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This week, the United States Senate will vote on the Serve America Act, legislation that will triple the number of national service opportunities and enable more Americans to take an active role in solving some of the most pressing social issues in our communities.

Arkansas, for example, has nearly 700 AmeriCorps members serving in a variety of organizations throughout the state, addressing a range of needs including literacy, homelessness, community blight, and hunger.  In Pulaski County, City Year Little Rock/North Little Rock – one of Arkansas’s largest AmeriCorps programs – brings young people from around the country and state to give one year of their lives to work in the public schools as tutors, mentors and role models.

The Serve America Act will create 175,000 new service opportunities in areas of need including education, health and clean energy. It will also create a Veterans Service Corps that will provide additional support for returning veterans and assist them in engaging in public service, among much more.

I hope  Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Sen. Mark Pryor see the value of this bill and vote to support it. If you agree, feel free to give their offices a shout and let them know.

In twenty-four hour the polls will officially open on election day. While the presidential race won’t be very competitive here, there are lots of local races that will be worth watching. As we discuss on Unconventional Wisdom a few weeks ago, Republicans are trying to make gains in local races, recognizing they couldn’t unseat any of the Democratic congressional candidates. There are lots of interesting races tomorrow. Here are the ones The Think Tank will be paying special attention to. Incumbents in bold.

U.S. Senate

Mark Pryor (D) v. Rebekah Kennedy (I). This race won’t be close, but the Green Party has candidates all across the ballot. We’ll be watching to see whether Ms. Kennedy gets more than 3% of the vote.

Arkansas Senate

District 30: Joe White (D) v. Gilbert Baker (R)

Arkansas House

District 28: Barbara Nix (D) v. David McCoy (R) – OPEN (D)
District 29: Scott Smith (D) v. Ann Clemmer (R) – OPEN (D)
District 38: John Edwards (D) v. Kelly Eichler (R) – OPEN (D)
District 70: J.P. Bewley (D) v. Robert Dale (R) – OPEN (R)
District 85: Bill Witty (D) v. John Burris (R) – OPEN (R)
District 89: Jim House (D) v. Gene Long (R)
District 91: David Stoppel (D) v. Bryan King (R)

County Judge

Pulaski Co.: Buddy Villines (D) v. Phil Wyrick (R)
Washington Co.: Marylin Edwards (D) v. Earvel Fraley (R)
Benton Co.: Bill Williams (D) v. Dave Bisbee (R)

Mayor’s Races

Fayetteville: Dan Coody v. Steve Clark v. Lioneld Jordan v. Walt Eilers v. Sami Sutton v. Adam Fire Cat.
North Little Rock: Pat Hays v. Bubba Lloyd

Judicial Races

6th Judicial District, 11th Division: Cathi Compton v. Melinda Gilbert
14th Judicial District, 1st Division: Gail Campbell v. Shawn Womack
22nd Judicial District, 4th Division: Robert Herzfeld v. Paul White

Ballot Initiatives

Initiated Act 1: Prohibiting unmarried cohabitants from adopting or being foster parents
Amendment 2: Requiring annual sessions of the Arkansas legislature
Amendment 3: Authorizing a lottery

LATER TODAY: PREDICTIONS

What to expect

NBC News political director Chuck Todd identifies the things he’ll be watching in all fifty states on election day.  Not much interesting news in Arkansas except that Todd notes Arkansas could be the only state that Obama loses that sports a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators.  He does think Obama loses the Natural State by less than 15 points, though.

Senate passes bailout bill

The Senate passed its version of the $700 billion bailout bill 74-25.   Arkansas Senators Mark Pryor and Blanche Lincoln both votes in favor of the measure.  So did Barack Obama and John McCainHere’s the list of those that voted No.  The bill heads to the House for a vote that is likely to come on Friday.

Is Arkansas in play for Obama?

Andrew DeMillo files a story with AP about Barack Obama’s chances in Arkansas. He talks with Gov. Mike Beebe, Rep. Mike Ross and Sen. Mark Pryor about it.

Could Obama win Arkansas? My view: Yes. I’ve already written about the many reasons why.

On the other side, Doug Thompson of the Arkansas News Bureau says that John McCain locked up Arkansas when he picked Sarah Palin as his running mate. The Arkansas Project has also argued why Arkansas is a tough battle for Obama.

On Mark Pryor

Seth Blomley of the Arkansas Democrat Gazette profiles Sen. Mark Pryor who faces opposition this November only from Rebekah Kennedy, a Green Party candidate.  He’s only Senator of 29 on the ballot that avoided major party opposition.

‘As long as she wants to stay in the race’ according to Congressman Marion Berry yesterday on a conference call hosted by the Clinton campaign with 35-40 members of Congress. John Lyon of Arkansas News Bureau followed up with members of the Arkansas delegation about their support for Sen. Clinton.

Jim Lendall, in his post in the comments section below, informs the Think Tank that the Green Party of Arkansas has nominated three candidates to run for federal office.  They’re fielding a candidate in the U.S. Senate race against Mark Pryor as well as candidates in the third and fourth congressional districts.

The Arkansas Republican Party wasn’t able to field a candidate against Pryor or against Mike Ross in the fourth congressional district (not to mention against Vic Snyder or Marion Berry).

Former Arkansas Attorney General Steve Clark has raised the issue as to whether he’s eligible to run for public office in Arkansas.  Clark was convicted of felony theft in 1990 for wrongfully charging less than $2,5000 in personal expenses on a state-issued credit card.  He was pardoned by Governor Mike Huckabee in 2004.  But a pardon alone doesn’t restore one’s right to run for office according in an AG opinion issued by Mark Pryor.  The criminal record must be exponged.

Today, the Arkansas Democrat Gazette reports that Clark has a court order from Circuit Judge John Langston exponging his criminal record pursuant to Ark. Code Ann. 7-6-102.

Clark, now living in Fayetteville, is considering a run for Mayor of that town.  He’ll make a decision in May.

No, this isn’t breaking news.  But reviewing the results of an Opinion Research poll commissioned by UCA President Lu Hardin for a course he’s teaching, Governor Beebe enjoys an 82% approval rating.  He outpaces Senator Mark Pryor (with arguably the most well known and well liked political name in Arkansas history) by 10 points.  Pryor holds a 72% approval rating.

Not so good news for Arkansas’s other Senator Blanche Lincoln who has merely a 60% approval rating.  Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is liked by 65% of Arkansans.  Many have speculated that Huckabee would return in 2010 to challenge Lincoln.  This poll should bolster that speculation.

If the presidential race were held today, Hillary Clinton beats John McCain 51% – 36%.  However, McCain beats Barack Obama 43% – 27% (although 26% remain undecided).

Which begs the question: shouldn’t the popular Governor of Arkansas, a red state in 2000 and 2004, be on the short list of running mates?  Sure, you might suggest that Clinton’s going to carry Arkansas regardless, and that may be true. But adding Beebe would lock it down.
And if Obama’s the nominee, much of the south is in play (Mississippi, Louisiana and Georgia, particularly).  Why not add a popular Governor with a wealth of accomplishments to the ticket?  You don’t think rural Democrats ambivalent about Obama wouldn’t come on board?

Beebe was born in Amagon, Arkansas, population 95 at the 2000 census and graduated from high school in Newport (population 7,811 at the 2000 census) before heading to Arkansas State University and the University of Arkansas School of Law.  He also served in the U.S. Army Reserve.