State Rep. Jonathan Dismang of Beebe is guest blogging at The Tolbert Report. In his post, “The Arkansas Republican Establishment (or lack thereof),” he bemoans the lack of a vibrant Arkansas GOP. He argues that Arkansas remains a one party state, and the efforts by the GOP in local areas can only be described as the beginning of a “Republican movement.” He believes that what the Republican Party of Arkansas needs is more people aspiring to be “established Republicans.”

Mr. Dismang doesn’t define “established Republican,” although he points to former Arkansas Rep. Asa Hutchinson as an example of what he means.

There is little argument: the Arkansas GOP is in bad shape. The state party chairman, Doyle Webb, has proven to be both ineffective and inarticulate. Barring a political tsunami, not one GOP candidate for Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, State Auditor or State Land Commissioner in 2010 stands a chance of winning. You can credit that to good Democratic candidates, decades of party-building, or both. You can also credit it to a demise of ideas within the Arkansas Republican Party.

Which is why a lack of Republicanism is the hardly Arkansas GOP’s problem. No one – not here or nationally – understands what it means to be a Republican today. Reaganism, which ushered in a new generation of Republicans, was so badly tarnished by President George W. Bush that hearkening back to it carries little political value today. Compassionate conservatism, a catchy campaign slogan, devolved into punch line for late night comedians. Today, the GOP’s de-facto leader, Dick Cheney, has decided to preserve his legacy by insulting President Barack Obama and scaring the hell out of everybody, including Republicans, while the GOP shouts to No! to every policy idea generated by Democrats. It’s no wonder that Republicans in Congress have an approval rating of 17%, compared to 40% for the Democrats.

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Happy New Year, and Welcome Back

After a lengthy stay in Memphis, Tennessee for a New Year’s/Liberty Bowl/ Beale Street vacation, The Think Tank is back at work and admiring the light snow that is falling in downtown Little Rock.

I’m catching up on local news. I’m sad to hear that Henry Woods, a former aide to Sen. Dale Bumpers, passed away. He was 58.

My Top 10 movies of the year appeared in the Arkansas Democrat Gazette New Year’s Day. If you don’t have a subscription, here they are: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Where the Wild Things Are, 3) An Education, 4) Summer Hours, 5) Bright Star, 6) Adventureland, 7) Precious, 8) Fantastic Mr. Fox, 9) Public Enemies, 10) Inglorious Basterds. Since I submitted this list I saw Up in the Air (terrific), Nine (A dazzling mess), Sherlock Holmes (entertaining with too much CGI), Avatar (gorgeous and hyper-political) and It’s Complicated (a very funny Alec Baldwin).

Last week I released my 2009 year in review in politics and blogging.

Jason Tolbert notes that Sarah Palin may or may not be coming to Arkansas next month.

Lance Turner is finally back blogging.

It sounds like John Brummett wants George W. Bush back in the Oval Office. He elaborates on his blog.

House Speaker Robbie Wills blogs his new year’s resolutions, one of which is “not to annoy John Brummett.” Come on Mr. Speaker, your new year’s resolution should be something more firm: “I endeavor that my blog, robbiewills.com, will never suck as bad as John Brummett’s.”

Pat Lynch says good riddance to 2009.

Jason Tolbert Departs HuckPAC

Right-of-center blogaholic Jason Tolbert resigned his post as Arkansas coordinator for Mike Huckabee’s political action committee today. Mr. Tolbert gives us a little insight into his rationale on his blog, “The Tolbert Report,” and notes that the events surrounding Maurice Clemmons played a role.

It’s got to be a tough day for him, Mr. Tolbert, I mean. He probably has the same feeling I did when I realized that professional wrestling was fake.

“The Tolbert Report” is terrific, particularly for those of you interested in what’s happening with the state GOP. It’s also gotten funnier as of late. (See his post on the Drew PrittKim Hendren debate yesterday at UALR.)

Mr. Huckabee is scheduled to speak at the Clinton School of Public Service on December 14th, for what it’s worth.

In a Bookstore Near You

For the money, I’d say pick up a copy of Bill Simmons“The Book of Basketball,” but if GOP politics is your sort of thing, Sarah Palin’s new book, “Going Rogue,” hits bookstores this Tuesday. (Is she old enough and interesting enough to write a memoir?) It’s pre-sold a  billion copies it seems, and she’s getting more free press than Houston Nutt on Saturdays. Anyway, here’s Michiko Kakutani’s thoughts on the book. According to Jason Tolbert, Ms. Palin will be in Fayetteville in early December.

Conservative columnist David Brooks was asked about Ms. Palin today on “This Week” with George Stephanopoulos in which he called her “a joke.”

The House will convene in about thirty minutes and begin the process of considering the health care bill. A vote is expected sometime late this afternoon or this evening. Politico has a synopsis of how the day will unfold.

Jason Tolbert noted earlier that Arkansas Reps. Mike Ross and John Boozman are expected to vote No on the bill. Politico lists Mr. Ross as a solid No vote. Reps. Vic Snyder and Marion Berry have yet to state their position publicly.

Mr. Tolbert and I will discuss the health care vote tomorrow morning on my radio show. Tune in.

I engaged in a fruitful and interesting dialogue with a political friend of mine earlier this week and we discussed myriad things, including the 2010 US Senate race. One of the points of discussion between me and my friend was whether it would behoove Sen. Blanche Lincoln to begin running television ads. After all, she has more $4 million in the bank, and her nearest challenger, an unknown, far-right state senator has $500,000 in the bank and a primary fight on his hands (albeit a minuscule one).

Our conversation took place before the Democratic poll showing Ms. Lincoln with a thirteen point advantage over Mr. Baker. The poll, as Max Brantley and Jason Tolbert note, may be untrustworthy. Not knowing much more than the final totals (Mr. Tolbert, the Magnum P.I. of the Arkansas blogosphere, has requested a complete copy), let’s just assume that the real numbers are somewhere in between that poll and the last poll conducted by a third-party polling group. That would put Ms. Lincoln somewhere between thirty-nine percent and fifty percent, or an average of forty-four and one-half percent. Mr. Baker stands somewhere between forty-seven percent and thirty-seven percent, or an average of forty-two percent. And, more importantly, let’s assume that the undecideds makes up the difference, thirteen and one-half percent, a number large enough to swing the election to either candidate.

Based on those numbers as well as the current political climate, is it advantageous to spend money on an ad buy? Let’s argue both sides.

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Senator Blanche Lincoln has an approval rating of 36% according to a poll released by Public Policy Polling. This has Arkie Republican bloggers – from Jason Tolbert to David Sanders to David Kinkade to Kenneth Ryan James – eager, excited and blogging away.

Patience, young Jedi.

Ms. Lincoln’s numbers will rebound when voters take the time to evaluate the race. Right now, a substantial majority of Arkansas voters are royally pissed off about everything happening in Washington, and they’ve got no one to point a finger at except Sen. Lincoln (they’ve hated Barack Obama from the get-go). But when forced to reflect on her time in the Senate and her role in shaping agriculture policy – a critical issue in Arkansas – among others, you’ll see influencers begin to speak out and voters come back.

(For example, how quickly people forget respected Republican and Arkansas Farm Bureau president Stanley Reed’s very favorable public comments about Sen. Lincoln and how much a “friend” she is to the Arkansas farmer.)

Not all of them will, of course, but at this early juncture it’s difficult to view these head-to-head poll numbers with any belief in their accuracy. They’re reactionary; evidence of nothing more than voter frustration that will, I believe, subside over the next year. Stated another way: there is no way blogger Curtis Coleman, vaccine advocate, is within the margin of error.

Once the slate of Republican candidates settles – and it better settle quickly – we’ll have a better grasp of Ms. Lincoln’s numbers. As Max Brantley noted, races are about match-ups. Until there’s a legitimate match-up, and by that I mean Gilbert Baker or Tom Cotton officially enter this race, then we don’t know anything at all.

District 22 Battle Royal

Former state Rep. Jeremy Hutchinson (yes, of the politically famous Arkansas Hutchinsons) announced today that he’s running for the state senate in District 22 as a Republican. This means that he’ll face state Rep. Dan Greenberg (yes, of the Pulitizer Prize winning Greenbergs) in the Republican primary. This is the second go-round for these two. According to Jason Tolbert they faced off in a special election for the state house in 1999. Mr. Hutchinson won by 98 votes.

I saw Mr. Hutchinson at Copper Grill a few weeks back while I was having lunch with Lance Turner and Zack Stovall and he indicated that he was going to run. He asked me not to tweet it, and for whatever stupid reason I agreed.

Mr. Greenberg has infused $100K of his own coin into the race, and Mr. Hutchinson said he hopes to raise $150K.

Bonus: I believe this is super blogger Mr. Tolbert’s district, which ensures around the clock coverage and lots and lots of video.

For the Democrats it appears that Rep. Dawn Creekmore and Todd Witham will be the two candidates in that primary.

Here We Go Again – - UPDATE

At what point will the blogosphere and Twittersphere give up the idea that former Kark Rove acolyte and US Attorney Tim Griffin is running for anything. First Jake Tapper of ABC News fires off a tweet to Mr. Griffin asking him whether his comments regarding Arkansas congressman Mike Ross were indicative of Mr. Griffin’s interest in the race. He responded, naturally, non-committal. This, of course, got the attention of super blogger Jason Tolbert who monitors the twittersphere with bat-like precision. He updated his blog accordingly.

Mr. Griffin’s not running for anything, I assure you, what with a high powered Texas governor’s campaign (he’s been hired by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson) coming up, among other business endeavors. (Arkansas Times editor Max Brantley notes that this smells like a lobbying tactic.)

I invited Mr. Griffin to appear on Arkansas Sunday Edition on August 16. He’s got army reserve duty that weekend and can’t make it.

UPDATE: Mr. Griffin’s confirmed for the August 23rd show. Details to follow.

Who?

Another Republican has announced for the U.S. Senate in 2010. This fella’s name is Conrad E. Reynolds (why the need for the middle initial?). Anyway, he has a Web site which includes links to Twitter and Facebook as well as a two minute video that looks like an intro to The Wonder Years, although the music isn’t as good.

His “My Stance” section is blank, which makes me wonder why he launched the site. Maybe that middle initial is the difference maker? It probably won’t trump Curtis Coleman’s bloggin’, though.

Anyway, he’s in the race and Jason Tolbert alerts me to the fact that Mr. E. Reynolds’ campaign is being run by the guy that ran Gilbert Baker’s successful state senate campaign. Mr. Tolbert, a modern day Encyclopedia Brown, determines that this means that Mr. Gilbert will not run.

The Lonely Misfits after the Rex Nelson party

It’s Friday and I’ve received a few comments from readers wondering where all of the round-ups have gone. More specifically, they’re missing the quote of the day, e-mail of the day and text of the day. Okay, fine, I generally bow to peer pressure so here you go. I’m not sure I’ll be blogging much this weekend, so deal with it. What will I be doing? I have no idea. But I am going to see this.

Let’s get on with it:

Why Do People Run for the Arkansas Legislature?: I don’t know, but Mike Fletcher, a Democrat from Hot Springs, announced that he’s running for State Senate District 27 previously occupied by Sen. Steve Faris who is term-limited.

Pay Me My Money: House speaker Robbie Wills and super blogger Jason Tolbert spar online over the salaries paid out to lottery personnel. Max Brantley of the Arkansas Times weighs in on this, too.

Undecided, Huh?: Sen. Mark Pryor says he’s “leaning” towards supporting Judge Sonia Sotomayor for the US Supreme Court. Sen. Blanche Lincoln says she’s still undecided. Summa Cum Laude from Princeton. Yale Law (An editor of the Yale Law Journal). On the federal bench since 1991 (nominated first by George H.W. Bush). Hell, she saved baseball. Republicans Richard Lugar, Olympia Snowe and Mel Martinez have indicated they will support her. Jason Tolbert shot  his mouth off on Twitter exclaiming that Republicans were nice during the confirmation hearings. The heat must be getting to him.

Rex is Bloggin’: Everybody’s All-Arkansas, Rex Nelson, is blogging. They threw a party for him this week a Whitewater Tavern. It was a who’s-who crowd of political and media people. They served free beer and barbecue, which guaranteed that the Lonely Misfits Drinking Society would show up. I rapped with Paul Greenberg about the Red Sox which was a lot of fun for him. Arkansas Project Girlfriend put in an appearance I’m told.

Kim Hendren Is An Idiot: He mouths off again. As I wrote in my original post it’s time for this guy to get out of politics.

Sunday Reading: I have a brief piece in Sunday’s Arkansas Democrat Gazette about the worst book I’ve read this year. I didn’t pick on any of the writers that we all know suck. I took on a heavyweight. Kane Webb put it together before he announced he’d be leaving the paper for a teaching gig at Catholic High School. The paper will be worse for it. The boys at CHS won’t.

Kinda Funny: I generally find Zack Stovall to be a re-tard, but this made me laugh.

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Trolling the blogosphere led me to a bunch of interesting developments in and around Arkansas while I was away.

State Rep. Dawn Creekmore, a Democrat, announced that she’ll run for the State Senate, district 22, which was occupied by Shane Broadway. State Rep. Dan Greenberg, a Republican, has also announced his candidacy for the seat. This one will be one to watch. Saline County resident and super-blogger, Jason Tolbert, is all over it.

Todd Witham, a local small business owner and former U.S. Marine, also announced he’ll be running in the Democratic primary. Mr. Witham and his wife, Carol, serve as President and CEO of Woodland International Research Group and Inspiration Day Treatment, Inc. They live in west Little Rock.

David “I love exclamation points” Meeks, a Republican, made his candidacy for US Congress official. He’ll challenge incumbent Rep. Vic Snyder.

Things don’t appear to be good in the Arkansas prison system. Apparently there was a meeting about recent reported abuses in the system, but having read only John Brummett’s tweets I couldn’t figure out what the hell was going on. Thankfully, Mr. Brummett cleared it up in this blog post and this column.

The first black woman to serve on the Arkansas Supreme Court died this week. Judge Andree Roaf was 68.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln has been in the news lately, the focus mainly related to President Barack Obama’s health care plan. Over on his spectacularly busy blog, Zack Stovall, offers up thoughts and perspectives. Can we expect more pressure on Sen. Lincoln now that Al Franken has won the Minnesota Senate race? Chuck Todd of MSNBC discusses President Obama’s approach.

Everybody’s All-Arkansas and soon-to-be-blogger, Rex Nelson, is having a blog launch party on July 14. I don’t know if I’m invited or not. Frankly, I don’t care. I’m showing up at Whitewater Tavern. Lucky him.

Thanks to Mr. Tolbert for this; David Kinkade of The Arkansas Project for this; and Max Brantley of the Arkansas blog for this.

Enjoy the 4th of July long weekend.

Blogger Curtis Coleman, Republican U.S. Senate candidate in 2012, will speak today at the Central Arkansas Republican Club at 11:30 a.m. Super blogger Jason Tolbert of The Tolbert Report will be on hand with his flip cam, so Mr. Coleman better be on his best behavior. Remember what happened to state Sen. Kim Hendren with Mr. Tolbert showed up with his Flip Cam? Thought so.

An e-mail came in to The Think Tank yesterday indicating that Chris Matthews of MSNBC was talking about Mr. Coleman’s infamous southeast Arkansas comments. I can’t find the clip, but apparently he quoted Arkansas Democratic Party executive director Mariah Hatta on the air. Previously, Politico picked up Zack Stovall’s Arkansas News Bureau story.

UPDATE: Here’s the transcript from MSNBC.

UPDATE II: Here’s the video.

UPDATE III: Oh man, blogger Curtis Coleman fell into Jason Tolbert’s Flip Cam trap and goes on camera to clarify his “you need a visa and a shot to travel to southeast Arkansas” comment. If I counted it right his explanation was more than 3 minutes, involved a listing of every city in “southeast” Arkansas and the number of friends Mr. Coleman has from there. All of this to say he didn’t mean it the way it was interpreted. Of course, if you watch the entire video you’ll note that he does say this:

I could have easily said that in southeast Arkansas about northwest Arkansas.

I’m sure they’ll appreciate that.

UPDATE IV: Ben Smith of Politico picks up on Mr. Tolbert’s interview on his own blog.

UPDATE V: And yes, as I suggested earlier, Mr. Coleman must be dumb. He says so himself in Mr. Tolbert’s interview:

It is a thousand more times more likely that I am stupid than I am racist.

Blogger Curtis Coleman announced a few months back, I think, for the U.S. Senate. Knowing that he has close ties to former governor Mike Huckabee, Mr. Coleman announced that some members of the Huckabee political family would be joining the campaign. I’m not sure what the hell for, but they’re doing it. Probably to help make that blog he’s running be all that it can be.

But Mr. Coleman isn’t helping himself. In a statement that has been widely circulated today, Mr. Coleman, speaking in Benton County, said this of Arkansas,

You go from here to southeast Arkansas, and you might as well get a visa and shots…

I’m not sure what inspired this You? You Lt. Weinberg moment for the people of southeast Arkansas, but Democrats were quick to respond. In a press release issued today the Democratic Party of Arkansas said,

What country is Mr. Coleman living in?  It appears that Mr. Coleman needs a lesson in civics, geography and possibly in manners.  Inferring that one part of our state is a disease-ridden foreign country is not only incorrect, but also insulting.  Mr. Coleman owes the people of southeast Arkansas an apology.

It’s train wreck day in Republican Party politics. Now, this statement may not have required such a fierce response from the Democratic Party; after all, this is Curtis Coleman. If he grabs 10% of the Republican primary vote, I’ll buy Jason Tolbert a new t-shirt. But the point is well made. Either Mr. Coleman’s sense of humor and comedic talents rival that of Dane Cook or he’s just plain dumb. No matter. He’s keeping it interesting which, in what will be a politically dull 2010, is fun for us.

Super blogger Jason Tolbert alerts The Think Tank to the upcoming TEA (Taxed Enough Already) Party that will be held on Monday, June 15 from 5:30 to 8:30 p.m. in the Riverfest Amphitheater. The event promises to have speakers, bands and an impersonator. Okay, so basically it’s a carnival but people will be talking about taxes rather than cotton candy and rigged games. On the other hand, maybe there will be games.

Dave Elswick of KARN, Rep. Dan Greenberg and Tom Cox, who may or may not announce for the U.S. Senate, will all be there. I’m expecting thorough coverage from The Arkansas Project and its special correspondent, Arkansas Project Girlfriend.

Bonus: We get to start saying tea-bagging again.

As I wrote yesterday, Judge John Fogleman of Marion announced today that he’s running for the Arkansas Supreme Court. As I also noted he gained notoriety for his prosecution of the West Memphis Three, a case that has come to life in recent months as lawyers for all three men seek new trials based on new evidence. The case was national news back then, and HBO produced a documentary.

It turns out that some enterprising protesters showed up at Mr. Fogleman’s announcement dressed in t-shirts. They protested in silence and walked out while he was making remarks.

Rod Bryan has video of the protest. Super blogger Jason Tolbert of The Tolbert Report was also there with his Flip Cam.

Mr. Bryan asked Mr. Fogleman if he thought the West Memphis Three case would play a role in the campaign. He said no. Surely he doesn’t believe that, although he noted to Mr. Tolbert, “This race is not about the State of Arkansas Vs. Damien Echols, Jason Baldwin, and Jessie Misskelley. This race is about what person is best qualified and experienced to serve the people of Arkansas and is best equipped to make those decisions on issues that are very difficult and very serious issues.” We’ll see.

Max Brantley of the Arkansas Times spoke to Mr. Fogelman, too. And he notes a brewing controversy over sealed records in the case that is worth reading.

For those of you that read David Kinkade’s hilarious blog, The Arkansas Project, you have seen him write from time to time about Arkansas Project Girlfriend, or APG. John Brummett, fresh off a deep spring slumber in that hollowed cabinet of the past where I keep him confined, had the opportunity to meet her in person and wrote about it on his blog.

Oh, and P. S., since cross-referencing and cross-pollination seem to be the essence of local blogging — Afterward a perfectly normal-looking and nice-seeming young woman introduced herself to me as the “Arkansas Project girlfriend.” In case you don’t know, former Katherine Harris/Asa Hutchinson aide David Kinkade operates a consistently funny, sometimes mean, sporadically informative and often bikini model-adorned blog at thearkansasproject.com, and there he sometimes invokes some semi-charming anecdote involving the “Arkansas Project girlfriend,” a fictional character, I always assumed, on account of his being a lonely misfit blogger.

Mr. Brummett’s a bit stunned by the whole thing. Like most things with JB I don’t care. But the last sentence does seem to suggest that us lonely misfit bloggers (Me, Mr. Kinkade, Lance Turner and Jason Tolbert and along with Zack Stovall, The Lonely Misfits Drinking Society) can’t get girls to go out with us.

Dude, please. This, featuring The Lonely Misfits, from the archives.

Conservative blogger Jason Tolbert filed a lengthy post yesterday on Curtis Coleman, a former evangelist, who launched a nifty Web site announcing his U.S. Senate exploratory committee. Mr. Tolbert wonders whether Mr. Coleman, who is on his second marriage, “has a Tim Hutchinson problem,” referring to the former Arkansas Senator who drew scrutiny for his divorce from his first wife.

In his post, Mr. Tolbert writes,

As an Arkansas political observer, one has to ask the question does Curtis Coleman have a Tim Hutchinson problem.  Coleman’s divorce took place back in 1993, just after he managed Mike Huckabee’s unsuccessful U.S. Senate campaign and around the same time that he left the ministry as a full time evangelistic for a career in the food industry.  In 2002, then-incumbent Republican Senator Tim Hutchinson narrowly lost to current-incumbent Democrat Senator Mark Pryor.  Some believe that Hutchinson’s 1999 divorce played a role in losing the close election.

Will voters ignore Coleman’s divorce as a personal family matter from his past or will the fact that it took place while he was a minister matter?  Will the fact that his ex-wife now supports his candidacy make a difference or does Curtis Coleman have a Tim Hutchinson problem?

I’m willing to guess that Mr. Coleman has bigger problems as a candidate than a divorce that took place sixteen years ago. (Re-read his miserable blog post and see if you can get comfortable with his inflamatory rhetoric.) Still, it’s funny to me the issues the far right chooses to focus on in an election.

UPDATE: David Kinkade of The Arkansas Project opines,

I’d not even intended to address this issue, as it strikes me as a private family matter, but now that he’s laid it out there on the radio and it’s in the public sphere, let’s just say this: If Coleman and his family have processed the fact of his divorce, and his ex-wife is past it to the point where she says she’ll support him, then it may be well past time for his former parishioners to just let it the hell go.

UPDATE II: Max Brantley of the Arkansas Times wonders,

More relevant might be a review of his Safe Foods’ company’s work with the state during the administration of his friend Mike Huckabee.

Be sure to pick up a copy of Sunday’s Arkansas Democrat Gazette. Arkie blogger David Kinkade of The Arkansas Project has a response to David Simon’s congressional testimony that a certain Arkansas print journalist drooled over recently.

Jason Tolbert breaks national news, Zack Stovall scores an appearance on “The Rachel Maddow Show,” and now Mr. Kinkade graces the Perspectives section of the Sunday paper. Oh, and Lance Turner finally got his Tweetup. Big week for the Arkansas blogosphere. Nice work, fellas.

I stole this from Lance Turners Blog

I stole this from Lance Turner's Blog

Thumbs all the way up to Zack Stovall who appeared on “The Rachel Maddow Show” last night to talk about Sen. Kim Hendren’s “That Jew” comment that has torpedoed his U.S. Senate campaign. Mr. Stovall kindly credited Arkie blogger Jason Tolbert of The Tolbert Report for breaking the story.

Mr. Stovall works for Arkansas News Bureau and he’s a blogger. He hangs out with the Lonely Misfits Drinking Society from time to time. Follow the link to his blog for the video.