The Palin Watch: Day Two

By all accounts Sarah Palin had a very good first day. From the news footage I could see and reactions around my office, people appeared enthusiastic and impressed. Her speech emphasized her conservative credentials and her leadership in Alaska. She also gave a very smart shout out to Hillary Clinton.

This morning, conservatives weigh in and some are more excited than others. Bill Kristol writes, “There will be rocky moments. But they will fade if the McCain campaign lets Palin’s journey take its natural course over the next two months. Millions of Americans–mostly but not only women, mostly but not only Republicans and conservatives–seemed to get a sense of energy and enjoyment and pride, not just from her nomination, but especially from her smashing opening performance.”

Fred Barnes in the Wall Street Journal notes, “Republicans have a ways to go. Mrs. Palin now must clear a daunting hurdle — first the media, then public opinion. Since the press is unfamiliar with her, she will be treated as a target for aggressive scrutiny. In the past, surprise picks like Mrs. Palin have faltered in the face of a media onslaught and never recovered. Mrs. Ferraro, though more familiar, became an albatross for Mr. Mondale. In 1988, Dan Quayle was quickly turned into a joke for late-night comics.”

The editors of The National Review opine, “None of McCain’s possible choices was perfect, and attention is being paid to the way that Palin undercuts other McCain themes, such as the importance of experience in foreign policy. Palin will have to reassure voters of her steadiness when she speaks at the Republican convention and when she debates Joe Biden. McCain, meanwhile, will have to carry most of the foreign-policy load himself and showcase his good health.”

Charles Krauthammer writes on the Washington Post website, “The Palin selection completely undercuts the argument about Obama’s inexperience and readiness to lead — on the theory that because Palin is a maverick and a corruption fighter, she bolsters McCain’s claim to be the reformer in this campaign. In her rollout today, Palin spoke a lot about change. McCain is now trying to steal “change” from Obama, a contest McCain will lose in an overwhelmingly Democratic year with an overwhelmingly unpopular incumbent Republican administration. At the same time, he’s weakening his strong suit — readiness vs. unreadiness.”

The Arkansas Project rounds up the local commentary from Doug Thompson, John Brummett and Aaron Sadler.

Mark your calendars for Wednesday night. That’s when Palin addresses the Republican National Convention. Most importantly, she’ll need to calm the uneasiness some have about her own experience. On values, she’s exactly what Republicans needed to energize their lethargic base. But that’s not enough. John McCain is 72 and a cancer survivor. Is Palin ready to lead in a time of crisis should something happen to him? This is question she must effectively address in this speech and then again in the debate in order to squash the distractions her candidacy presents.

Editor’s Note: For people who say VP’s don’t matter, in the history of American nine have assumed the office when the sitting president either died unexpectedly or resigned.

Obama, McCain and Race

Race, it appears, has taken center stage of the 2008 presidential election.  This morning, network and cable news showed clip after after clip of Barack Obama addressing the issue during campaign events.   Interestingly, it seems that Obama has tried to step on out the issue of race saying “”Nobody thinks that Bush and McCain have a real answer to the challenges we face. So what they’re going to try to do is make you scared of me. You know, he’s not patriotic enough, he’s got a funny name, you know, he doesn’t look like all those other presidents on the dollar bills.”

This has prompted a flurry of responses today from the more conservative members of the media.  Charles Hurt of the New York Post notes, “ommitted the worst blunder of his campaign by wrongly accusing President Bush, John McCain and other Republicans of trying to make voters fear him.”

The editorial board of the Wall Street Journal opines, “It would be not only good for this campaign but also in Senator Obama’s political self-interest if he dropped this unattractive implication about his opposition. The more he tries to use race as a shield from criticism, the less he’ll look like a potential leader of the entire country and more like a traditional liberal playing racial politics.”

Syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer said, “Look, what’s really bizarre about this is Obama is accusing the Republicans of something that they haven’t done, or McCain of something he hasn’t done.”

Eugene Robinson of the Washington Post takes a different view.  ” Of course the McCain campaign isn’t really offended that the first black major-party candidate for president in American history might mention this distinction from time to time. The idea is to slow Obama down before he runs away with this thing, and the weapon of choice is handfuls of mud.”

Today on “Morning Joe,” NBC News political director Chuck Todd noted that every day that race is the topic is a bad day for Obama.  Over at First Read, he re-iterated this point: “The Obama campaign doesn’t want the race issue to become an overarching theme of the campaign.”

VP talk: It’s everywhere

Michael Duffy of TIME magazine has a piece online today about the problems facing Barack Obama and John McCain in their search for a suitable VP. From Duffy’s point of view, Obama has two options: 1) address the concerns voters have over his experience and lack of foreign policy credentials or 2) reinforce his message of change. If he goes with no. 1, the pick is surely to be Sen. Joe Biden, Sam Nunn or possibly Gen. Wesley Clark whom Rachel Maddow has been pushing on MSNBC. If he goes with no. 2, all signs point to Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine who is prohibited by the state constitution from seeking re-election. The middle of the road pick seems to be Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana who served as governor before being elected to the Senate and whose name has substantial political strength in the Hoosier State.

McCain faces similar problems. Does he pick a youthful, energetic young governor with a good economic record, or does he re-inforce his own credentials (experience, foreign affairs) with an older pick?

Questions arose among an informal Think Tank focus group about this very issue. For Obama, I’ve argued for some time that Biden would be a great pick. Why? He’s instantly credible on Obama’s weakest issue, and his style – tough, direct – doesn’t overshadow. It serves as a perfect compliment. Biden’s primary weakness seems to be that he’s been in Washington a long time, which would hurt the campaign’s message of change. Joan Walsh of Salon also prefers Biden . . . if Hillary Clinton isn’t the pick.

McCain’s been getting hammered on left-leaning and right-leaning talk shows. I took in both “Countdown with Keith Olbermann” and “The O’Reilly Factor” last night and both hosts and their guests criticized McCain for his poorly run campaign.

As I’ve said before, he needs to shake it up, and not just with staff or new policy directives. He needs to announce his VP choice soon, and get the media re-engaged in his campaign. According to several media sources, McCain’s attention seems to be focused on Minn. Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former budget director Rob Portman and former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney. The first two address McCain’s need for a fresh, young face that has been exposed to a national audience. Romney, 61, underscores the theme of experience – and he might deliver Michigan. The Pawlenty pick drew the ire of two Republican operative on “The O’Reilly Factor” last night. They thought the pick was boring and would not excite the Republican base. I’m not certain that matters if Pawlenty can deliver his home state. Of course they, like I, believe McCain has bigger problems.

Yesterday, in a posted a link to a note from Mark Halperin of TIME on his blog where hinted that the McCain’s short list might include someone without Washington experience. That would be a substantial risk, but it would certainly shake up McCain’s campaign and draw sustantial media attention. Names that have been floating around are Fred Smith, CEO of FedEX and Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard who now serves as a senior McCain advisor.

On the Democratic side, Mark Ambinder of The Atlantic says Obama’s list is down to four: Biden, Bayh, Kaine and Kathleen Sebelius, the governor of Kansas. This report from the New York Times seems to suggest the same based on the activities of those vetting VP candidates. Mort Kondracke, the Executive Editor of Roll Call, thinks Bayh might be the pick. Charles Krauthammer, a syndicated columnist who writes for the Washington Post, among others, had an interesting observation on “Special Report with Brit Hume” where he said, “. . . after eight years of Cheney’s influence in foreign affairs, people have a sense that that is an important office in a way that never existed 30 years ago.” Thus, he would steer clear of Kaine.

Chris Matthews noted on his show on Sunday that he thought the picks would still be Biden and Romney. Those two candidates address the most specific needs for Obama and McCain.

The Edwards factor

Interestingly, one exists. The way the Democratic primaries set up, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be winning delegates from now until the convention. The AP’s already reported that neither candidate will have enough delegates after February 5th meaning that this race will go on. John Edwards, who holds a respectable number of delegates to-date, is likely to pick up more tonight in South Carolina. Should he continue to win small chunks of delegates, he’ll wield some influence in the coming days.

So much so that according to Robert Novak, Illinois Democrats close to Obama are quietly passing the word that Edwards will be named Attorney General should Obama win in November.

Edwards and Obama appeared to bond several weeks ago. I suspected it was an effort by Edwards to gain favor with the Obama camp knowing full well that he’d get very little attention and respect in a Clinton administration.  It turns out that suspicion may be dead on.

While Edwards carries a lot of favor with unions, traditionally a very necessary constituency for winning in Democratic Party politics, he also brings a truckload of baggage with him, as noted by columnist Charles Krauthammer, in this harsh, but factually accurate op-ed on Edwards’ record.

If Edwards finishes a distant third in South Carolina, as the polls suggest, he’s going to roll into Febuary 5th on fumes, with no money for television spots or field staff (Sources close to The Think Tank say Edwards’ quit paying a bulk of his staff after New Hampshire).  He loses leverage the longer the campaign drags on and the worse he does.

Thus, now is the time to strike a deal with Obama. Edwards, in exchange for his delegates, his endorsement and his pull with the unions, gets a shot to remain politically relevant.

Time will tell, however, whether it’s a good thing for the Democratic Party for Edwards to stick around.