Republican Princella Smith, who has returned to Arkansas after working for Newt Gingrich, announced the formation of an exploratory committee while she considers a bid for the seat being vacated by Rep. Marion Berry. She’s from Wynne and is a graduate of Ouachita Baptist University.
Rep. Marion Berry will announce his retirement today. This creates a vacancy in the first congressional district for the first time since 1997. A Democrat has held this seat since 1891. Lewis P. Featherstone held the seat as a Labor Party member from 1889 – 1891.
Thoughts and reactions from David Kinkade of The Arkansas Project, Lance Turner of Arkansas Business, Max Brantley of Arkansas Times, Jason Tolbert of The Tolbert Report and Andrew DeMillo of AP.
The list of potential candidates is growing. The names I keep hearing are state Sen. Robert Thompson, Chris Thyer, Chad Causey and Benny Petrus on the Democratic side. For the GOP, Rick Crawford has already announced, and there was a lot of noise on Twitter for state Rep. Davy Carter of Cabot.
Today, voters in the second congressional district campaign in Arkansas got a feel for how national Democrats feel about Tim Griffin’s candidacy. The DCCC issued a strongly worded press release criticizing Mr. Griffin for engaging in the practice of vote caging during the 2004 presidential election.
Vote caging, according to Dahlia Lithwick of Slate, “is an illegal trick to suppress minority voters (who tend to vote Democrat) by getting them knocked off the voter rolls if they fail to answer registered mail sent to homes they aren’t living at (because they are, say, at college or at war).”
Was caging at work in the 2004 presidential election? Here’s a BBC News report.
Thumbs up to Roby Brock for following up on the rumors that Gen. Wesley Clark is interested in running for the second congressional district seat being vacated by Rep. Vic Snyder. It appears that Mr. Clark is seriously considering the race, and several national media outlets have picked up on the story.
Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire linked to it this morning. Politico’s Ben Smith confirmed the rumor with a spokesman for Mr. Clark today. There’s also Twitter talk from Jonathan Martin and CQ Politics on the possibility.
There’s a ton of upside for Mr. Clark if he enters the race. He has impeccable foreign affairs credentials, lots of political capital among Arkansas Democrats, and personal characteristics that will resonate with conservative Democrats and independent voters. He isn’t tied to Washington or to the Arkansas legislature, making him a true outsider to the process.
The drawbacks appear both political and personal: Does a four-star general really want to be 1 of 435 members of the House of Representatives? Other Congressman have made great strides early in their House careers. Rahm Emanuel and Harold Ford Jr., for example, were able to use their political strengths to garner a position of influence both within the House and within the Democratic Party. At the same time, does Mr. Clark want to put his life in the private sector on hold to enter politics?
Depending on the decision made by other candidates (particularly House speaker Robbie Wills, former Attorney General candidate Paul Suskie and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who have yet to announce), Democrats may be hoping the answer to both is yes.
On January 11, 2010, In 2010 arkansas senate race, Arkansas, Local News, Newspapers and Media, Politics, By Blake
It’s political opportunism day in Arkansas. The Republican National Senatorial Committee issued a release attacking Blanche Lincoln for not criticizing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid for his comments about President Barack Obama, which are contained in a new book about the 2008 presidential campaign titled “Game Change.”
In case you haven’t been following the news, Mr. Reid described Mr. Obama’s electoral chances as good because he was “light skinned” and had “no Negro dialect, unless he wanted to have one.” Mr. Reid, like Ms. Lincoln, is up for re-election in 2010.
The RNSC claims that Ms. Lincoln, who openly and rightly criticized former Mississippi Sen. Trent Lott for his praise of Sen. Strom Thurmond, a segregationist and civil rights opponent, is being inconsistent for not doing the same in this instance.
Here’s what Mr. Lott said of Mr. Thurmond at a birthday party in his honor, in 2002:
I want to say this about my state: When Strom Thurmond ran for president, we voted for him. We’re proud of it. And if the rest of the country had followed our lead, we wouldn’t have had all these problems over all these years, either.
As Joe Klein of TIME opines, “These sentiments, both crude, are at the opposite ends of the political spectrum: Reid stands for the ultimate symbol of racial equality, a black man as President; Lott would have voted for a candidate who wanted black people at the back of the bus.”
There’s little merit, outside of election year partisan politics, in attacking Ms. Lincoln over her silence. The situations, after all, are quite different.
As Ken Rudin of NPR notes,
But is what Lott said in 2002 comparable to what Reid said about Obama? There are at least three differences.
– The person most offended by Reid’s comments, President Obama, has completely forgiven him. Blacks never forgave Lott for what he said about Thurmond (even though, if memory serves, then-Senate Dem Leader Tom Daschle initially brushed off the controversy).
– As for what pushed Lott out as GOP leader, while some Republicans insist that the Mississippi senator was pressured to quit by Democrats and liberals, it was his own party’s White House — the Bush White House — that made it clear Lott had to go. The administration quietly, but clearly, lined up behind Tennessee Sen. Bill Frist as Lott’s successor. The Obama White House is in Reid’s corner.
– Trent Lott was never seen as an ally of the civil rights movement, so it was easier to tar Lott with the “racist” brush than it is with Reid. While politics no doubt played a big role in forcing Lott out, the fact remains that his voting record was not, shall we say, universally applauded by the African-American community. Reid’s support for civil rights legislation is unquestioned.
The venerable Daily Kos is calling on Sen. Blanche Lincoln to retire.
Democrats have a thick bench in Arkansas, and could make a serious bid to hold the seat. But Lincoln won’t pull it off. She’s toast.
If Lincoln cares about her state and her party, she’ll do the honorable thing like Chris Dodd and retire. Otherwise, let’s hope Lt. Gov. Bill Halter forcefully retires her in a primary.
I think Kos has this one wrong. First, consider the GOP candidates in this race. On a whole they’re incredibly weak. Taken individually, only state Sen. Gilbert Baker looks like a contender, and he may not get out of the GOP primary.
Second, consider the political history. Ms. Lincoln, hardly loved by the more progressive wing of the Democratic Party, is running in Arkansas, where voters overwhelmingly rejected Barack Obama in 2008. She’s won tough races before, including re-election to the House in 1994, and re-election to the Senate in 2004, when an anti gay marriage amendment was on the ballot. In that race she defeated Jim Holt, a staunch conservative from GOP dominated northwest Arkansas, who’s making another bid this go-round.
Third, her political standing is incomparable to Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd. She’s doesn’t have to answer for a Countrywide scandal or moving her entire family to another state. (Mr. Dodd moved his family to Iowa during the 2008 Democratic primary, going to so far as to enroll his kids in Iowa public schools.) Unlike Conn. Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, who has a 78% approval rating among Democrats and a 70% approval rating among Republicans, there isn’t an obvious alternative, although Lt. Gov. Bill Halter looks good on paper.
Finally, I think the polling in Arkansas is misleading. Voters are frustrated, but they don’t have any real sense of the alternative. Ms. Lincoln is the Agriculture Committee chairman, and her efforts on health care, why sloppy at the beginning, righted themselves at the end when it mattered. She’s against cap-and-trade and card check legislation, which puts her in line with many Arkansas voters. Once they are better educated about these matters my view is that her numbers will rise (Which is why I have called on the Lincoln campaign to spend some of her $6 million war chest – a health amount for a political race in Arkansas – on ads explaining her committee chairmanship, her vote on health care, and her plan for the economy).
I get the political sex appeal of Mr. Halter, particularly by progressives and by organized labor. And Mr. Halter may very well enter the Democratic primary and then we’ll know. But suggesting Ms. Lincoln is “unelectable” a gross exaggeration.
E.J. Dionne, writing in The Washington Post, assesses the political fall-out of yesterday’s announcements by Sens. Chris Dodd and Byron Dorgan to retire, along with Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter’s decision not to run for re-election.
He observes, as many did, that the situations in Connecticut and Colorado are actually quite good for Democrats. In North Dakota, where Mr. Dorgan was in lonely company as a Democrats, Republicans stand to gain if Gov. John Hoeven decides to run. (He’s hinted many times before about running, but has yet to step up.)
The 2010 Senate landscape is compounded by so many factors: presidential approval, economic circumstance, health care, and, now, terrorism. As I noted in a post yesterday, while the news of yesterday may have given the GOP a burst of energy (conservative Arkie blogger Jason Tolbert couldn’t shut-up about it on Twitter), the landscape still favors Democrats thanks to strong candidates and poor GOP approval nationally.
Mr. Dionne takes note of these races, including the contentious battle here in Arkansas involving Blanche Lincoln, and notes,
Democrats are betting that they will easily hold New York and California, while hanging on to Nevada — Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has relatively unknown opponents and will have a huge bank account — and Pennsylvania. Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln confronts the most difficult terrain of any Democrat this year, but she may profit from Republican divisions.
Then there are the Democrats’ wild cards: five Republican seats where some combination of strong Democratic candidates, divisive Republican primaries or potentially weak GOP nominees offers a chance to offset losses.
In rough descending order of possibility, these include Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, North Carolina and Kentucky. Democrats can’t bank on any of them, but just a win or two would buy their majority protection.
First Byron Dorgan and now Chris Dodd. The former is arguably more shocking than the latter. After all, Mr. Dodd had the worst polling numbers of any Democratic incumbent in the Senate and he was almost certain to lose in November. Mr. Dorgan, on the other hand, was a well-liked Democrat in the red state of North Dakota, although he might have faced a considerable battle in November.
Republicans will be quick to say this signals peril inside the Democratic Party. Maybe so. Although remember that six (6) Senate Republicans announced their retirement this cycle.
In Mr. Dodd’s case, his withdrawal paves the way for a much more popular Democrat, Attorney Gen. Richard Blumenthal, to run. He’s the states most popular politician making it unlikely this seat will flip to the Republicans.
Mr. Dorgan’s case isn’t as sunny for the Democratic Party. Their best option appears to be Rep. Earl Pomeroy, the state’s lone representative in the House. He’s likely to square off with Gov. John Hoeven, a Republican, who won re-election in 2008 with 74% of the vote, making this a likely Republican pick-up.
For those of you interested in the pivotal 2010 U.S. Senate races, Arkansas (D), Delaware (D), Pennsylvania (D), Nevada (D), North Dakota (D) Connecticut (D) and Colorado (D) are the most likely pick-off states for Republicans.
On the other side, Missouri (R), Ohio (R), Kentucky (R), North Carolina (R) and New Hampshire (R) are the most likely pick-off states for the Democrats.
Here’s a quick look at what’s happening in those races:
Arkansas: I’ve made my thoughts on Sen. Blanche Lincoln well-known. She finished Q4 of 2009 very strong, and her likely GOP opponent, Gilbert Baker, hasn’t offered anything beyond the Just Say No positions of national Republicans (who remain very unpopular).
Delaware: If Beau Biden, the state’s Attorney General and son of Vice President Joe Biden, gets in this race it stands a fighting chance of staying with the Democrats. The GOP candidate, Rep. Mike Castle, 70, is considered the GOP’s best hope in a state that has voted for Democrats in the past five races for governor, president and Senate.
Pennsylvania: Republican Pat Toomey is cut from the same ideological cloth as former Sen. Rick Santorum, whom Pennsylvanians voted out of office. He leads Sen. Arlen Specter by single digits. Interestingly, polls show Mr. Specter with support of only 73% of Democrats.
Nevada: It’s a Democratic Party machine state, and Sen. Harry Reid (D) has been elected to the Senate four times.
Colorado: This one remains peculiar, particularly because Gov. Bill Ritter, a Democrat, announced that he would not seek re-election. He came under fire for appointing Michael Bennett rather than former House speaker Andrew Romanoff. A December poll from Rasmussen shows former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) leading both candidates by single digits.
Missouri: Robin Carnahan (D) maintains a narrow lead over Rep. Roy Blunt (R).
Ohio: Both Democratic candidates are within the margin of error against Rep. Rob Portman (R).
(A key factor in both Missouri and Ohio will be the approval rating of the GOP in Congress. A Gallup poll conducted Dec, 11-13, 2009 shows it approval of Congress by Republicans currently at 15%. This Quinnipiac poll shows that 29% of voters approve of the way Republicans in Congress are handling their job. Sorry, that wasn’t clear before. Thumbs Up: P.O.)
North Carolina: GOP incumbent Richard Burr has an approval rating of 37% and leads a generic Democrat by a slim margin of 42% – 41%.
New Hampshire: Both candidates, former AG Kelly Ayotte (R) and Rep. Paul Hodes (D) are unknown. Ms. Ayotte, despite holding statewide office for five years, is known by only 22% of the voters. Mr. Hodes is known by 16% of voters.
Kentucky: The GOP is set to nominate Rand Paul, son of former Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul. That will mean big bucks, but not good general election prospects. A Survey USA poll shows Mr. Paul losing to Dem. Jack Conway, the state’s AG, and tied with Dan Mongiardo, the state’s Lt. Governor.
We’re still ten months from election day, so take these polls for what they’re worth.
State Rep. Jonathan Dismang of Beebe is guest blogging at The Tolbert Report. In his post, “The Arkansas Republican Establishment (or lack thereof),” he bemoans the lack of a vibrant Arkansas GOP. He argues that Arkansas remains a one party state, and the efforts by the GOP in local areas can only be described as the beginning of a “Republican movement.” He believes that what the Republican Party of Arkansas needs is more people aspiring to be “established Republicans.”
Mr. Dismang doesn’t define “established Republican,” although he points to former Arkansas Rep. Asa Hutchinson as an example of what he means.
There is little argument: the Arkansas GOP is in bad shape. The state party chairman, Doyle Webb, has proven to be both ineffective and inarticulate. Barring a political tsunami, not one GOP candidate for Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, State Auditor or State Land Commissioner in 2010 stands a chance of winning. You can credit that to good Democratic candidates, decades of party-building, or both. You can also credit it to a demise of ideas within the Arkansas Republican Party.
Which is why a lack of Republicanism is the hardly Arkansas GOP’s problem. No one – not here or nationally – understands what it means to be a Republican today. Reaganism, which ushered in a new generation of Republicans, was so badly tarnished by President George W. Bush that hearkening back to it carries little political value today. Compassionate conservatism, a catchy campaign slogan, devolved into punch line for late night comedians. Today, the GOP’s de-facto leader, Dick Cheney, has decided to preserve his legacy by insulting President Barack Obama and scaring the hell out of everybody, including Republicans, while the GOP shouts to No! to every policy idea generated by Democrats. It’s no wonder that Republicans in Congress have an approval rating of 17%, compared to 40% for the Democrats.
Gabe Holmstrom, formerly communications director for Attorney General Dustin McDaniel, has joined the Arkansas Democratic Party as a senior advisor. He’ll be focused on the U.S. Senate race which has generated a lot of national media attention.
I’m not sure how active Mr. Holmstrom will remain on Twitter, but for the time being you can following him here.
Sen. Blanche Lincoln named her core campaign team today. It’s no surprise that Steve Patterson, her former chief of staff, will be running the campaign. His deputy and also the campaign’s GOTV director is an old law school classmate of mine, Maurice Rigsby. Katie Lanning Neibaum will serve as communications director and spokesperson. David Oberembt will direct the campaign’s field operations, which will be critical. Mr. Oberembt led field operations for the Obama campaign in six states in 2007-08.
Ms. Lincoln appeared on KARN this morning. She’ll speak to the LR Kiwanis Club today at lunch and the Stuttgart Chamber of Commerce this evening. Ms. Laning told me me that she would address three important topics: agriculture, health care and the economy.
Following the link below for the press release announcing her campaign team.
After a lengthy stay in Memphis, Tennessee for a New Year’s/Liberty Bowl/ Beale Street vacation, The Think Tank is back at work and admiring the light snow that is falling in downtown Little Rock.
I’m catching up on local news. I’m sad to hear that Henry Woods, a former aide to Sen. Dale Bumpers, passed away. He was 58.
My Top 10 movies of the year appeared in the Arkansas Democrat Gazette New Year’s Day. If you don’t have a subscription, here they are: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Where the Wild Things Are, 3) An Education, 4) Summer Hours, 5) Bright Star, 6) Adventureland, 7) Precious, 
Fantastic Mr. Fox, 9) Public Enemies, 10) Inglorious Basterds. Since I submitted this list I saw Up in the Air (terrific), Nine (A dazzling mess), Sherlock Holmes (entertaining with too much CGI), Avatar (gorgeous and hyper-political) and It’s Complicated (a very funny Alec Baldwin).
Last week I released my 2009 year in review in politics and blogging.
Jason Tolbert notes that Sarah Palin may or may not be coming to Arkansas next month.
Lance Turner is finally back blogging.
It sounds like John Brummett wants George W. Bush back in the Oval Office. He elaborates on his blog.
House Speaker Robbie Wills blogs his new year’s resolutions, one of which is “not to annoy John Brummett.” Come on Mr. Speaker, your new year’s resolution should be something more firm: “I endeavor that my blog, robbiewills.com, will never suck as bad as John Brummett’s.”
Pat Lynch says good riddance to 2009.
The second to last update of the year, although there’s not much to report. The bill has entered the conference phase and, as expected, a lot of that work is taking place behind closed doors.
In Arkansas, the esteemed editorial board of the Democrat-Gazette jumps on the pork bandwagon, harpooning Sen. Blanche Lincoln for not delivering more pork (aka needless federal spending for which the GOP regularly cries foul) for Arkansas. I’ve already argued how silly this argument is, and how hypocritical.
Today, The Arkansas Leader fires back noting that Ms. Lincoln, along with Sen. Mark Pryor, can trumpet a very important benefit to our state: Medicaid expansion. It will result in millions of dollars flowing through our medical institutions. That’s helps everybody.
Arianna Huffington of The Huffington Post, in her “2009: Things I Want to Forget” list, makes note of Arkansas state Sen. Kim Hendren’s “that Jew” comment in reference to New York Sen. Charles Schumer. The comment was first captured by Jason Tolbert of The Tolbert Report via video and released on his blog. It become national news instantly.
The headline is inspired by this column by Eugene Robinson in the Washington Post. He’s spot-on in his rationale for why the Democrats efforts, perhaps a little too ugly, were right. Thousands of people go bankrupt every year trying to pay doctors and hospitals. The Democrats had an opportunity to change it, and they took advantage.
As I type the Senate has passed the final procedural hurdle, a 60-39 vote for cloture. Tomorrow morning at 7:00 a.m. the bill will come for a final vote. A simple majority rules.
If you read the comments section of this blog you’ll see some visceral (and personal) reactions to the health care bill which both Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Sen. Mark Pryor voted for. Fair enough. Everyone’s entitled to their opinion, and this site is meant to be a forum for thinking and opinion sharing.
By now, you know my view on this. I think this bill, while not perfect, goes a very long way in correcting some of the truly awful things in our health care system. Over time, as people understand the benefits of the bill, I believe they will respond favorably. History will see this as landmark legislation even though it will be tinkered with as time goes by.
While there are changes that need to be made (and both political extremes are making a lot of noise about it), the bill as it is written does some very good things. The provision that now prohibits insurance companies from turning people away because they have a pre-existing condition is a game-changer. It will positively and profoundly impact the lives of millions.
At the same time, the bill helps middle and low income working families, including small business owners and employees, procure affordable private insurance. It creates competitive exchanges where health insurance companies will bid on their business, and it provides more than $100 million in subsidies and tax credits.
The median household income in Arkansas is around $41,000. For residents in that income bracket the costs savings are enormous. Currently, if you live in that income bracket your health care exposure is anywhere from 49% – 73% of annual income. Under the Senate bill that exposure would decrease to 18% – 21% of annual income. It’s not ideal, but it’s substantially better.
This bill drives costs down for seniors. Currently, health insurance companies charge seniors upwards of eleven-times the average cost for care. This bill reduces costs to three-times the cost of care. Again, it’s not perfect, but it was enough of an improvement to obtain the support of the AARP, the nation’s largest advocacy group for seniors.
By virtue of the individual mandate, insurance companies will be provided with 30 million new customers without the hassle of having to compete with a government-run public option. It is no wonder stock prices of the largest health insurance companies in America have soared in recent days. At the same time, there are cost-control measures, including requiring insurance companies to spend 85 percent of their premium income on care, and an excise tax on Cadillac plans aimed at driving premium costs down.
As Ernie Dumas noted in The Leader, Medicaid will be expanded in Arkansas to potentially cover 170,000 residents who have never had coverage. Despite what the advertisements on television say, the costs for this will be absorbed by the federal government from 2013 – 2016 in full, and then at 91% of total costs to the state from thereon. Any suggestion that this will bankrupt our state is misleading. The federal government is able to pick up the tab by reducing inefficiencies and wasteful spending.
The Congressional Budget Office opines that the Senate bill will reduce the deficit by $132 billion over ten years. Critics of the bill don’t like the CBO’s accounting methods. I’m not an economist or an accountant, so there’s little I can say either way. I know that the CBO is mandated to provide “objective and impartial” analysis on the cost of legislation. Furthermore, CBO reports contain no policy recommendations. With that in mind, I am willing to give their analysis the benefit of the doubt.
I am aware of concerns about CBO estimates generally (and this relates to process much more than politics). As a reader notes, Megan McArdle of The Atlantic has been diligent in critiquing the review process. She’s adamantly opposed to this bill, as she noted on her blog, but her analysis of the speculative nature of these efforts is something to consider broadly.
If there is a moral aspect to this debate it is this: to what degree was this simply the right thing to do? That degree will vary, I realize. Cast in those terms, my conclusion is this: citizens should have, as a right, affordable health insurance that allows for doctor care and choice, affordable medications, and relief from fear and anxiety over how the bills will be paid. (If you don’t believe that fear is real, you should have attended the free health clinic in Little Rock a few weeks ago.)
If one thing is certain today it is that the cost of inaction is too high.
Happy New Year: The Best and Worst of 2009 in Politics and Blogging
2009 was an interesting year in Arkansas and beyond. There was good news, bad news and all-together odd news about people, places, companies and industry. Below are my reflections (with a lot more after the jump).
Best National Political Moment
Barack Obama taking the oath of office in front of more than 2 million on the National Mall and millions more around the world. Police noted that there was not a single incident of disturbance on the mall that day.
Best Arkansas Political Moment
Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, much to the ire of his political adversaries, fulfilled his campaign promise to deliver an Arkansas lottery. After a rocky beginning, the lottery took off and millions of dollars will go towards college scholarships for Arkansas students.
Most Unassuming Political Moment That Will Have Lasting Benefit
Gov. Mike Beebe’s ability to trim the state’s budget without cutting jobs of state employees. Arkansas received high marks for its economic standing, including a lower unemployment rate than the rest of the country.
Best Political News Get By a Non-News Guy
Jason Tolbert of The Tolbert Report broke the news that Arkansas state Sen. Kim Hendren referred to New York Senator Charles Schumer as “that Jew” in a speech. The story went national instantly.
Most Notable Arkansas Political Figure
Gov. Mike Beebe for his sky high approval ratings and mastery of the legislative and budget process.
Most Notorious Arkansas Political Figure
State Sen. Kim Hendren. See above.
Most Notorious Arkansas Political Figure Runners-Up
State Rep. Beverly Pyle, guns in church enthusiast.
Arkansas GOP Chairman Doyle Webb for his offensive and discriminatory comments about State Rep. Kathy Webb.
Best Arkansas Blogging Take-Down
David Kinkade of The Arkansas Project for his “Ten People Who Should Never Blog” post. It was also the best Arkansas blog post of 2009.
Howard Beale “I’m Mad As Hell” Moment to Which No One Paid Attention
John Brummett bitching at me and David Kinkade on a variety of matters, including the declining newspaper industry.
(more…)