The venerable Daily Kos is calling on Sen. Blanche Lincoln to retire.
Democrats have a thick bench in Arkansas, and could make a serious bid to hold the seat. But Lincoln won’t pull it off. She’s toast.
If Lincoln cares about her state and her party, she’ll do the honorable thing like Chris Dodd and retire. Otherwise, let’s hope Lt. Gov. Bill Halter forcefully retires her in a primary.
I think Kos has this one wrong. First, consider the GOP candidates in this race. On a whole they’re incredibly weak. Taken individually, only state Sen. Gilbert Baker looks like a contender, and he may not get out of the GOP primary.
Second, consider the political history. Ms. Lincoln, hardly loved by the more progressive wing of the Democratic Party, is running in Arkansas, where voters overwhelmingly rejected Barack Obama in 2008. She’s won tough races before, including re-election to the House in 1994, and re-election to the Senate in 2004, when an anti gay marriage amendment was on the ballot. In that race she defeated Jim Holt, a staunch conservative from GOP dominated northwest Arkansas, who’s making another bid this go-round.
Third, her political standing is incomparable to Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd. She’s doesn’t have to answer for a Countrywide scandal or moving her entire family to another state. (Mr. Dodd moved his family to Iowa during the 2008 Democratic primary, going to so far as to enroll his kids in Iowa public schools.) Unlike Conn. Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, who has a 78% approval rating among Democrats and a 70% approval rating among Republicans, there isn’t an obvious alternative, although Lt. Gov. Bill Halter looks good on paper.
Finally, I think the polling in Arkansas is misleading. Voters are frustrated, but they don’t have any real sense of the alternative. Ms. Lincoln is the Agriculture Committee chairman, and her efforts on health care, why sloppy at the beginning, righted themselves at the end when it mattered. She’s against cap-and-trade and card check legislation, which puts her in line with many Arkansas voters. Once they are better educated about these matters my view is that her numbers will rise (Which is why I have called on the Lincoln campaign to spend some of her $6 million war chest – a health amount for a political race in Arkansas – on ads explaining her committee chairmanship, her vote on health care, and her plan for the economy).
I get the political sex appeal of Mr. Halter, particularly by progressives and by organized labor. And Mr. Halter may very well enter the Democratic primary and then we’ll know. But suggesting Ms. Lincoln is “unelectable” a gross exaggeration.
Fantastic Mr. Fox, 9) Public Enemies, 10) Inglorious Basterds. Since I submitted this list I saw Up in the Air (terrific), Nine (A dazzling mess), Sherlock Holmes (entertaining with too much CGI), Avatar (gorgeous and hyper-political) and It’s Complicated (a very funny Alec Baldwin).
Happy New Year: The Best and Worst of 2009 in Politics and Blogging
2009 was an interesting year in Arkansas and beyond. There was good news, bad news and all-together odd news about people, places, companies and industry. Below are my reflections (with a lot more after the jump).
Best National Political Moment
Barack Obama taking the oath of office in front of more than 2 million on the National Mall and millions more around the world. Police noted that there was not a single incident of disturbance on the mall that day.
Best Arkansas Political Moment
Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, much to the ire of his political adversaries, fulfilled his campaign promise to deliver an Arkansas lottery. After a rocky beginning, the lottery took off and millions of dollars will go towards college scholarships for Arkansas students.
Most Unassuming Political Moment That Will Have Lasting Benefit
Gov. Mike Beebe’s ability to trim the state’s budget without cutting jobs of state employees. Arkansas received high marks for its economic standing, including a lower unemployment rate than the rest of the country.
Best Political News Get By a Non-News Guy
Jason Tolbert of The Tolbert Report broke the news that Arkansas state Sen. Kim Hendren referred to New York Senator Charles Schumer as “that Jew” in a speech. The story went national instantly.
Most Notable Arkansas Political Figure
Gov. Mike Beebe for his sky high approval ratings and mastery of the legislative and budget process.
Most Notorious Arkansas Political Figure
State Sen. Kim Hendren. See above.
Most Notorious Arkansas Political Figure Runners-Up
State Rep. Beverly Pyle, guns in church enthusiast.
Arkansas GOP Chairman Doyle Webb for his offensive and discriminatory comments about State Rep. Kathy Webb.
Best Arkansas Blogging Take-Down
David Kinkade of The Arkansas Project for his “Ten People Who Should Never Blog” post. It was also the best Arkansas blog post of 2009.
Howard Beale “I’m Mad As Hell” Moment to Which No One Paid Attention
John Brummett bitching at me and David Kinkade on a variety of matters, including the declining newspaper industry.
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