The Democrats kicked off their convention last night with two remarkable speeches. The first came from Sen. Ted Kennedy who was diagnosed with a brain tumor a few months back. “This November the torch will be passed again to a new generation of Americans, so with Barack Obama and for you and for me, our country will be committed to his cause. The work begins anew. The hope rises again. And the dream lives on,” he said. Here’s a piece I wrote about Kennedy and the late Senators Daniel Patrick Moynihan and Paul Wellstone when the news of Kennedy’s illness was announced.

Kennedy was followed by Michelle Obama who, quite frankly, had a lot riding on her speech. She spoke about her own background, growing up in Chicago and the family she has with Barack. It was the political equivalent of a home run, and reminded me very much of the great speech Laura Bush, whose political weight had not yet been measured, gave in 2000.

Today is a big day in terms of party unity. Hillary Clinton speaks in primetime around 9:30 p.m. CST. Jackie Calmes of the New York Times writes of “Stalwarts for Clinton, in Search of a Catharsis.” Anne Kornblut of the Washington Post breaks news that Obama never seriously considered Clinton for the #2 and that it remains a source of strain. “Clinton was never asked for the official vetting paperwork when other potential running mates were. Obama never invited her to have a real conversation about potentially joining forces, although the two spent time together at several events,” she notes. John Harris of Politico wants to know if the Clintons will ever get over it?

Robbie Wills, writing over at Under the Dome, notes, “The headlines in the national papers are alluding to a “split” in the convention hall between Clinton and Obama supporters. While there did seem to be a little tension early last evening, my sense is that the Hillary supporters are easing into the week and were just a little less enthusiastic, a little slower to rise for the standing ovations, than the Obama folks. Early last evening, one Clinton delegate said they felt more like a spectator that a participant at that point. However, I think as the week goes on the fences will be mended just fine.”

UPDATE: Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post has five things Clinton needs to do tonight in her speech.

UPDATE II: I’ll be on Twitter tonight chatting about the speeches in real time. My Twitter name is blakerutherford if you want to hop on and follow. I’ll be posting here sporadically.

UPDATE III: Here’s a copy of Hillary Clinton’s prepared remarks.

UPDATE IV: 22 million people watched the convention last night. Any idea what they number will be like tonight?

UPDATE V: The headline at The Huffington Post: “Hillary Delivers . . . And Then Some . . .”

UPDATE VI: Michael Crowley of The New Republic writes on the TNR blog: “I’ll amend this if I’m mistaken but on first read of Hillary’s speech text I see no clear, flat assertion that Obama is qualified and prepared to be commander in chief from day one, which of course was always her central critique of him. That was something I had expected to see.”

UPDATE VII: I’m posting regularly on Twitter for those of you that are out there online.

UPDATE VIII: Katherine Q. Seelye of the New York Times is a great live blogger. She’s up at The Caucus.

UPDATE IX: Hillary Clinton paid tribute to former Democratic Party of Arkansas Chairman Bill Gwatney in her speech tonight. Clinton attended Gwatney’s funeral with former President Bill Clinton at Pulaski Heights United Methodist Church in Little Rock.

UPDATE X: Pat Buchanan of MSNBC has done “all that she can.” But Buchanan says that Clinton doesn’t have supporters, she has a following. The crowd is going wild suggesting that Clinton’s supporters are now behind Obama. Buchanan also said, “Why didn’t they put this woman on the ticket?” Which he says raises the stakes for Joe Biden, he says. Norah O’Donnell responds: “They don’t have to love Obama, they just have to vote for him.” Eugene Robinson of the Washington Post disagrees with Buchanan.

UPDATE XI: Oh boy. CNN is reporting that Bill Clinton will not be at Obama’s acceptance speech Thursday evening. Let the strange speculaion begin.

UPDATE XII: Au revoir.  I’ll catch back up in the early morning.

The 2008 Democratic National Convention officially kicks off this afternoon in Denver, Colorado. There is a lengthy list of speakers on the program today, and the prime time speaker will be Michelle Obama at 9:35 p.m. CST. The Chicago Tribune opines that Mrs. Obama needs to define herself in her speech tonight. Margery Eagan of the Boston Herald believes tonight is damage control time for Mrs. Obama. “What she must do is convince Americans that she and her husband are not what many suspect they are: holier-than-thou radicals with chips on their shouldlers.”

The Convention should be full of plenty of lofty rhetoric, but the Boston Globe argues that the Democrats need to balance glamour with grit. Sean Wilentz, writing for Newsweek, echoes these sentiments. And the Convention comes with complication, as Rich Lowery of the New York Post notes in a piece headlined, “All About Hillary.”

Some thoughts about online coverage:

For Arkansans looking for happenings from the convention, check out House Majority Leader Steve Harrelson’s blog “Under the Dome.” Also, Harding University professor Mark Elrod will be providing updates to Arkansas Business.com from Denver.

The Washington Post and Newsweek have teamed up to provide daily live video broadcasts online everyday from 3:00 - 5:00 p.m. and 6:00 - 10:00 p.m CST.

New York Times Carpetbagger David Carr will be covering the convention for the New York Times.

Other blogs I’ll be checking very regularly: Mark Halperin of TIME; Ben Smith of Politico; Chuck Todd of NBC News; Swampland collective: Joe Klein, Karen Tumulty, Jay Newton-Small, Ana Marie Cox, Jay Carney, Michael Scherer and Mike Murphy; and Chris Cillizza of “The Fix” at the Washington Post.

I will be updating here continuously over the next four days. I’ll add some live blogging features for many of the primetime speeches beginning tonight.

UPDATE: Sen. Ted Kennedy is now rumored to give a speech at the Convention tonight.

UPDATE II: Hillary Clinton will release her delegates on Wednesday. Also, rumors abound that the symbolic roll call vote for her won’t happen after all.

UPDATE III: If you’re curious about the seating chart, here it is. Arkansas is in the back behind Minnesota.

UPDATE IV: Bill Clinton will speak about national security. Huh?

Runs through Barack Obama senior staffer Molly Buford of Little Rock.  Buford worked for Sen. Joe Biden before joining the Obama presidential campaign.

Sen. Barack Obama has selected Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware to be his running mate. This completes the Democratic Party ticket. The two will appear together today at a rally at 2:00 p.m. CST in Springfield, Illinois.

Is it a good pick? Yes, and for many reasons. Biden’s a credible source on an array of issues, including foreign affairs. He’s a superior debater and performs very well on combative talk shows like “Meet the Press” and “This Week.” He has a unique personal story that will resonate with voters across the country as they get to know him. His state of Delaware is partially consumed by the Philadelphia media market, and he has family from Scranton, PA. Biden’s also a fighter. He’ll be able to attack the Republican record effectively, and he won’t back down from the negative campaign McCain intends to run.

John McCain launched a negative ad this morning. The claim is that Biden once made a comment suggesting Obama isn’t ready to be President. Really? That’s it. No attack on Biden’s record, or that he’s not fit to assume the Presidency should it ever come to that?

Oh, and McCain’s ad has to confirm that he’s not picking Mitt Romney to be his VP. Romney blasted McCain on just about everything: immigration, campaign finance, energy, lack of understanding on the economy, same sex marriage and climate change. And this is funny too.

The Biden pick has to give the McCain campaign pause. Is the McCain camp really going to put Minn. Gov. Tim Pawlenty up against him? I’m hearing from credible sources that he tops the short list.

That said, a smart and politically nimble move would be for McCain to put former Penn. Gov. Tom Ridge on the ticket and let the cards fall where they may. Will Evangelicals and other pro-life conservatives really stay home because Ridge is pro-choice? My money says no. After all, McCain has already pledged to put more John Roberts and Sam Alito’s on the Supreme Court if he’s given the chance.  Ridge would bring executive experience and foreign policy heft (he served as Sec. of Homeland Security) to match Biden, especially in the debate.

Biden is a very good pick. Advantage Obama.

They’re up next beginning Monday with the Democratic National Convention which kicks off in Denver. For the latest happenings within in the Arkansas delegation, stay tuned to Under the Dome where House Majority Leader Steve Harrelson will be blogging.

MSNBC tweaked its line-up yesterday announcing that Rachel Maddow will take the 9:00 p.m. time slot that was previously held by Dan Abrams. MSNBC has provided the most comprehensive election coverage this year, and there’s no reason to believe that the conventions will change. Thankfully, Morning Joe returns on Monday.  The Los Angeles Times profiles NBC News political director Chuck Todd who will be a critical part of MSNBC’s 20-hour a day convention coverage.

The Republican National Convention kicks off September 1 in Minneapolis-St. Paul.

There has been a lot of talk this election year about the growing influence of young voters in the 2008 election.  More voters are eligible to vote in 2008 than at any time since the baby boomers turned 18.  “Rock the Vote” alone set a goal of registering 2 million young people in 2008.  In a July poll, Barack Obama led John McCain by 12 points among voters under 30.

These young voters don’t have home phones and along with their status as a first time voter, they don’t appear on a pollsters sample sheet.  This is one of the many reasons why people have been suspect about all of the polling done this season.

The other thing young people do not do is watch television news.  Brian Stelter of the New York Times has a story today about the efforts by network news programs to court young voters.  CNN has launched the “League of First Time Voters” and FOX News is supporting “The Y Factor” with a full-time correspondent.  Luke Russert, son of the late Tim Russert, is covering the youth vote for NBC.  Previously, ABC News announced that it would set up digital news bureaus affiliated with graduate schools of journalism in five states.

Stelter will speak at the Clinton School of Public Service as part of the 2008-09 speaker series.

With the conventions right around the corner, both presidential candidates are expected to make announcements regarding their VP selections. Ben Smith and Glenn Thrush of Politico note that Obama is likely to make his pick later this week or sometime over the weekend. This weekend on Meet the Press, NBC political director Chuck Todd suggested that the events in Russia may have changed the game a bit for Barack Obama. George Stephanopoulos indicated on This Week that Delaware Sen. Joe Biden was leading the pack. Biden made a trip to Georgia this weekend which he discussed with the Obama campaign according to the Washington Post. This morning on Today Andrea Mitchell indicated that Obama is looking for someone who can really stand up to the Republican attacks. Picking someone who is a novice to national politics would be problematic, she noted. According to the Financial Times, the short list includes: Biden, Tim Kaine, Kathleen Sebelius, Bill Richardson, Sam Nunn, Evan Bayh and John Kerry.

Over at Swampland, Jay Newton-Small reviews the released list of speakers. Interestingly, Sen. Jack Reed who traveled with Obama to Iraq, hasn’t been listed yet as a speaker. Neither has Kerry whom a Boston news station has also mentioned a legitimate candidate for VP or Gen. Wesley Clark. Clark is said to not be attending the convention according to Steve Clemons of the Washington Note because the Obama campaign informed him that there would be no role for him there. If you assume that those already announced to speak will NOT be the VP, Biden is out of the race. He’s scheduled to speak on Wednesday, the same day as the VP.

On the Republican side, Michael Kranish of the Boston Globe reports efforts by Mike Huckabee to diminsh the chances of Mitt Romney as John McCain’s vice presidential pick. Huckabee is quoted as saying, “”I think there are better choices for Senator McCain that have the approval of value voters. The issue is that in many ways, Mitt Romney has had very definite swings of position. Not just on one or two things, but on many of the issues.”

The same Financial Times story suggests Tom Ridge as someone McCain is closely considering. Previous reports have suggested Sen. Joe Lieberman, Romney and Minn. Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

UPDATE: The New York Times is reporting that an announcement could come as early as tomorrow morning regarding Barack Obama’s VP pick. The story indicates that Obama has made up his mind and it will be one of three candidates: Biden, Kaine or Bayh. This morning on Today, Chuck Todd indicated that all signs were pointing to Biden and that members of Biden’s staff felt confident that this was his best shot to make the ticket.

The Politico reports that John McCain will announce his VP selection on August 29th, the same day he turns 72. This is also the day after Obama accepts the nomination in Denver.

UPDATE II: All signs are pointing to Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as Obama’s VP pick. Mark Halperin of TIME notes that Biden’s staff sent out an e-mail requesting updated contact information for all of Biden’s supporters. Howard Fineman of Newsweek writes, “My bottom line is this: Barring a big surprise or last-minute change of heart, the choice is likely to be Sen. Joe Biden of Deleware, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee.” The Chicago Sun-Times is reporting that the Obama campaign has reserved the Old State Capitol in Chicago to showcase the ticket on Saturday. This is the same place Obama kicked off his campaign in 2007. They will then embark on a tour of battleground states before heading to the Democratic National Convention.

UPDATE III: High level Republican sources tell Halperin that former Penn. Gov. Tom Ridge is out of the running to be McCain’s VP.

UPDATE IV: Biden tells reporters “I’m not the guy.”

UPDATE: V: Blogfather Jerome Armstrong of MyDD.com predicts that Tom Daschle will be Obama’s pick. Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas Zuniga is also predicting Daschle.

UPDATE VI: Is Joe Lieberman going to be McCain’s VP pick? The Politico reports that Lieberman is “very much in the mix” to be the No. 2 on the Republican ticket.

UPDATE VII: John Heilemann of New York magazine suggests that the backlash from the GOP around the potential for McCain taking a pro-choice VP will lead to Mitt Romney being selected as his running mate.  He wonders, “Isn’t it possible that McCain and his people are engaged in a bit of elaborate gamesmanship designed to make Evangelicals more grateful than they otherwise might be for the selection of that guy?”

The New York Times comes to Arkansas to explore why the Obama campaign is essentially bypassing it in the 2008 election. It’s a very good question. After all, Arkansas has been trending Democratic in the past four years, including electing a new slate of Democratic Party officers to all of the consitutional offices while preserving the position of incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor (he faces opposition this November only from the Green Party).

Yes, Hillary Clinton trounced Obama in the primary by 43 points, his worst defeat. That has clearly discouraged the Obama campaign, and it has raised questions about Obama’s ability to win Arkansas in the fall. But Arkansas is a winnable state. Here’s why:

It’s the economy, stupid. According to a Rasmussen Poll released Thursday shows Obama polling more favorable than McCain among voters making less than $40,000. In 2002, Arkansas had a per capita personal income of $23,556. According a Rasmussen state poll, 45% of Arkansas voters named the economy as the number one issue of the election (25% said the war in Iraq was the top issue). If the economy remains the biggest issue, the challenger (Obama in this case) stands a far better chance (see 1992).

Democrats are encroaching on Republican territories. The Obama campaign should also be encouraged by the growing enclave of likely Democratic voters in Northwest Arkansas (where the Hispanic population is also growing) and the opportunity to mobilize African-Americans across the state. After all, in national polls, Obama leads McCain among African-American voters 94% - 5%. Obama also leads McCain by 21% among Hispanic voters.

Arkansas is a blue state. As of January, there were 57,851 registered Democrats and 44,437 registered Republicans in Arkansas. There are 1.57 million registered voters in Arkansas, a substantal number of which remain unaffiliated. To give context to that number, let’s look at the 2006 statewide elections. Beebe, a Democrat, defeated Asa Hutchinson, a Republican and Bush administration official, 430,765 to 315,040 in the 2006 gubernatorial election. That’s a 15% margin of victory. Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, a Democrat, beat Jim Holt, a Republican, by 15% as well, garnering 437,930 votes (It should also be noted that Holt received 45% of the vote against incumbent US Sen. Blanche Lincoln in 2004; he received 42% of the vote in 2006 with much better name identification). Atty. Gen. Dustin McDaniel, a Democrat, beat Gunner DeLay, a Republican, by 21% and received 443,476 votes across the state. State Treas. Martha Shoffner, a Democrat, beat Chris Morris, a Republican, by 23% and received 450,450 votes. Each of these candidates were running in open seats.

Democratic Party voting rolls are growing. In the United States, the number of registered Democrats has increased substantially, while the number of registered Republicans has decreased (a reverse from the trend leading into the 2004 election).

There are Hillary Clinton voters to be had. Obama’s biggest challenge in Arkansas is what Sheila Bronfman, a friend, Hillary Clinton supporter and political animal of the highest order, said when she was asked whether she’d put an Obama sign in her yard: “. . . it’s just hard for me to do that. I just have to decide how far I want to go.” For Obama to win Arkansas, he has to get these Democats - die hard Hillary supporters and there are many - to rally behind him.

Nationally, only 80% of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama (compared to 87% of Republicans that will vote for McCain). In Arkansas, that number plummets. According to a Rasmussen Poll released in July, only 67% of Democrats in Arkansas support Obama (compared to 91% of Republicans that support McCain). The poll showed McCain leading Obama 52% - 39%.

Hendrix College professor Jay Barth is right when he says, ” “Whether they [Arkansas Democrats] like it or not, they’re going to be tied to Obama. They might as well get the benefits out of it.”

And why not? After all, on June 29th, Clinton issued this statement: “Today, Barack and I were in Unity to celebrate a unified Democratic Party focused on electing him the next president. I was proud to stand with him today, and I will do whatever I can to help his campaign between now and November.”

Arkansas remains a pink state primarily because Arkansas Democrats, many of whom supported Clinton, have yet to line up behind Obama. If they get off the fence, Obama can win Arkansas.

In something unprecedented in modern American politics, both presidential candidates will appear at a mega-church to discuss religion and faith in political life.  Barack Obama and John McCain appear today at Saddleback Church in Orange County, California.  Pastor Rick Warren will moderate the discussion.  For a good discussion on the implications and political benefits this appearance provides to both candidates, check out Alan Wolfe’s piece at The New Republic.

He observes, “That Rick Warren has invited Obama, and for the second time no less, is. Warren is America’s anti-Falwell. If he has little interest in removing evangelicals from politics, he has taken the lead in removing them from automatic identification with Republicans. Equal time in a megachurch is a decided advantage for any Democrat, especially one like Obama, who has been polling relatively well among religious voters. In fact, according to the Barna Group, which routinely surveys Christians, Obama leads McCain among every group except those who call themselves evangelical; even those who prefer the term “born-again” give the edge to Obama.”

The presidential election has taken a few interesting turns over the cours of the last week.  With conflict in Georgia, voters have a new foreign policy threat on their mind as we head into the conventions.  Most media outlets give the edge to McCain, obviously, but will the conflict resonate with voters?  With the impact that it has on US oil (not to mention Valdimir Putin’s obvious attempts to expand his regional influence) it should.  If you’re interested in more on Georgian politics, I suggest “Democracy and Autocracy in Eurasia: Georgia in Transition” written by my Middlebury College classmate Irakly Areshidze.

Barack Obama took another hit when Republican political operative turned book publisher (who knew it was that easy!) Mary Matalin agreed to publish right wing hatchet man Jerome Corsi’s new book “The Obama Nation” which debuted at No. 1 on the New York Times bestseller list.  Obama quickly issued a 40-page rebuttal.  Corsi was the guy behind “Unfit for Command,” a generally fictional account of John Kerry’s wartime service in 2004.  Of course, the Kerry camp didn’t take it seriously until too late and it doomed the campaign.

Sen. Hillary Clinton will have her name placed in nomination at the Democratic National Convention.  It’s a symbolic gesture, they say, and is being done in an effort to unite the Democratic Party.  Pundits are making a lot of noise about this.  Is it much ado about nothing?  The Democrats have to hope so.  Michael Goodwin of the New York Daily News opines, “The fleeting sense that he is a magnanimous nominee won’t get him a single vote he wouldn’t get anyway. Ditto for the idea that he’s going the extra mile to unify the party. Those who refuse to accept him as the legitimate winner aren’t likely to do so just because he caves into her demands. It makes him look weak and ratifies Clinton’s sense of entitlement to share party leadership and the convention spotlight.”  Toby Harnden of Real Clear Politics agrees, “Fuelled by an unholy brew of victimhood and entitlement, Clinton’s supporters threaten to steal the show at the convention. Don’t be fooled by the sweetness-and-light joint statement released by the two campaigns. According to one member of Clinton’s camp, Obama’s “elbow was twisted”. Any future negotiations with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran will probably seem like a picnic.”

The veepstakes is still running at full steam.  Rumors have been swirling about McCain strongly considering former Pennsylvania Gov. and Homeland Security chief Tom Ridge as well as Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman for his No. 2.  Hannity and Colmes discussed the issue with Dick Morris.  Morris loves the idea of a McCain - Lieberman ticket.  Rich Lowry notes the absurdity of it.

As for Obama, he’s been in Hawaii so there hasn’t been much talk.  Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine seem to be leading the pack.

I missed it, of course, but Clinton School of Public Service communications director Ben Beaumont passes on a video link to the speech given byLowell McAdams.  It appears that about 1,000 or so jobs will remain for the call center.

I’m back after a brief hiatus to the news that Democratic Party chairman Bill Gwatney was killed on Wednesday afternoon. The investigation as to why this happened continues. Needless to say, Gwatney was a dedicated public servant and political animal. The funeral will be held on Monday at 2:00 p.m. at Pulaski Heights United Methodist Church in Little Rock.

Rememberances from the Arkansas Democrat Gazette and Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe.

UPDATE: John Brummett opines about the comments about Mr. Gwatney that were posted on the Arkansas Times blog. He observed, “Wasn’t what happened terrible without regard for the political philosophy of the victim or the sympathizer? Could somebody please take a stand for once without regard for partisan prejudice or proviso - firmly against cold-blooded murder in broad daylight, perhaps? I’m wondering if humanity is in precipitous decline or if we’ve always hung by such a precarious thread.” Well said.

Doug Thompson has a tribute column to Mr. Gwatney today. He writes, “Bill Gwatney died proud, happy and at his peak. His death was senseless and tragic. We’re the ones left in shock.”

Update II: David Sanders, Pat Lynch and Kane Webb all have very kind things to say.

Paris Hilton.  Energy.  Stupid.