Blake's Think Tank

Lt. Gov. Bill Halter issued a statement tonight urging Sen. Blanche Lincoln to support the changes to the Senate version of the bill approved through the reconciliation process tonight. He also issued a strong statement in support of the bill itself.

Ms. Lincoln issues a statement offering her support for the Senate bill and her opposition to the changes adopted under the House reconciliation bill. She plans to vote no when the Senate takes it up next week.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has indicated that 52 Democrats currently support the reconciliation bill. A simple majority is all that is required.

Lt. Gov. Bill Halter lobbed the accusation that Sen. Blanche Lincoln was ducking a debate. Today, the Lincoln campaign responded:

The campaign has received a handful of inquiries from media outlets about the Senator’s willingness to attend debates, and each time we have indicated that she is eager to debate the issues with her opponents,” Charlie Gocio, Deputy Communications Director for Lincoln for Senate. “However, those inquiries haven’t included specific dates yet. The only dated request that we have received came from a group in Conway named the Conservative Forum which is sponsoring a debate on the UCA campus on April 7. Unfortunately, the Senator already has a scheduling conflict. In the coming weeks, the Senator has already committed to appear at several candidate forums sponsored by the Arkansas Farm Bureau and other groups, and she looks forward to other debate opportunities in the future.

Here are my thoughts on labor’s role in the Democratic primary for US Senate.

Today, Sen. Blanche Lincoln will be in Forrest City, Arkansas to host a Child Nutrition Town Hall at 2:00 p.m.. Yesterday, she unveiled The Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act.

Lt. Governor Bill Halter will hold a press conference at his campaign headquarters at 11:00 a.m. to comment on the pending health care reform vote in the House of Representatives this week. Any idea what the message will be? Here’s my guess: Pass the damn bill. It’s covers 95% of Americans. It prohibits insurance companies from denying you because you have a pre-existing condition. It reduces the federal deficit. Procure is a red herring. A vote for any of it – including procedural issues – is a vote for health care reform. And it’s okay – in fact, very smart – to vote in favor of this bill. As mentioned, it’s going to do lots of good things, especially for the 400,000 Arkansans without health insurance.

I can’t make either. Please pass along what you hear.

UPDATE: I was wrong. Mr. Halter merely said that he supported the student loan reform bill. Not surprising. It provides more money for Pell grants. Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s been on the fence. It gives Mr. Halter more ammunition on education.

From MoveOn.org:

I’ve never understood fully why Sen. Blanche Lincoln was concerned (I’d say opposed, but he campaign insists that is inaccurate) about President Barack Obama’s student loan reform bill. Here’s what she said in a news release:

As Congress has moved forward on student loan reform, I have expressed my concerns – outlined in a letter with Senator Pryor to Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee Chairman, Tom Harkin – that non-profit state agencies such as the ASLA and SLGFA be allowed to remain productive partners in the lending and servicing of student loans. And after hearing from several Arkansas colleges and universities, I have also asked that our schools be provided with an adequate amount of time and assistance to make the changes that will be required to change loan programs so that services for Arkansas students and families are not disrupted.

The New York Times outlines the legislation, which includes $36 billion in new financing for Pell grants over the next 10 years. The maximum annual Pell grant would increase by $625 by 2017, to $5,975. It should be noted that this Pell initiative also covers a shortfall $13.5 due to a large increase in students attending college.

But as the Times also notes,

The Obama administration’s effort to end the subsidies and federal guarantees for student loans, known as the Federal Family Education Loan program, and redirect billions of dollars to students, has been strongly opposed by bankers, Republicans and some Democrats from areas with strong student-loan businesses.

Enter Ms. Lincoln. Still, with education being one of the hottest – if not the hottest – issue in Arkansas right now, I’m curious as to the political advantages of standing in the way of more money for Pell grants. That’s the headline; that’s the issue people care about.

After all, Ms. Lincoln doesn’t appear to be opposed on fiscal grounds (an initial CBO study suggested that it would save $20 billion less than originally expected).

Appearing on KARK Channel 4 this morning, GOP strategist Bill Vickery and I both picked Rep. John Boozman as our political loser this week. The primary reason being that he skipped last night’s debate – the second or perhaps third time he’s done so. The Democratic Party of Arkansas was quick to note that despite Mr. Boozman’s assertions otherwise, no health care votes were held last night.

Mr. Boozman would be smart to note that all of Arkansas – and not just the third district – will vote in the general election. Sure, he may wipe the floor with the other 7 candidates in primary, where he’s likely to do very well in the northwest Arkansas counties that will make up a substantial amount of the primary vote. But he’s missing the point and the value of a competitive primary. Oh, and it’s never a smart thing in politics to act like the winner before you are, uh, the winner.

Arkansas Business has more on the debate.

Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln stopped by “Morning Joe” this morning. She appeared with Washington Post reporter Bob Woodward and NBC News reporter Kelly O’Donnell. She talked a lot about health care and the problems in Washington. She gave credit to the Senate health care bill calling it “a good bill.” She trumpeted the importance of solutions. She also gave credit to Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe, Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss, and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham as Republicans willing to compromise.  Ms. Lincoln unveils the largest child nutrition bill in US history today.

Lt. Governor Bill Halter has launched his fourth television spot. The ol’ football coach is back. It’s anti-Washington, time for a change in leadership stuff. He hammers home no pay raises, town halls in all 75 Arkansas counties every year and states he’ll never become a lobbyist.

Just finished my column on the impact that organized labor is having on the Blanche Lincoln – Bill Halter Senate primary. It will run Friday in the Benton Courier. Congratulations to the University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff on their first ever win in the NCAA tournament. It’s also the first win for the SWAC conference. The Golden Lions play Duke on Friday in Jacksonville, Florida. Tons of tweets about the GOP Senate debate tonight at the UALR Bowen School of Law. I didn’t make it by. Sen. Lincoln is on “Morning Joe” Wednesday morning. I’m headed to KARK Channel 4 around 6:50 a.m. to talk political winners and losers for the week. Tune in if you’re awake.

This relates to nothing I mentioned above, but damn it was funny.

Tough. Reactionary. Does the burden of being reactionary outweigh the benefit of being tough? Time will tell.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln today announced her opposition to the House of Representatives using the “self executing rule” otherwise known as “deem and pass” to secure approval for the health care reform bill scheduled for a vote later this week.

The House should vote on the Senate health bill under normal rules.  I noticed that Bill Halter has called for more accountability in Washington, so I expect him to stand with me and support transparency throughout these final stages of the debate on health insurance reform.

I’m trying to get my head around where the political advantage lies. I recognize that Ms. Lincoln has been successful in trumpeting the transparency issue, but the House rule doesn’t skirt transparency. I’m fairly certain that the public is going to believe that a vote for the reconciliation measure constitutes a broad vote in favor of health care reform. Whether there are two votes or one is rather meaningless to voters. You’re either in favor of health care reform or you’re not.

It doesn’t address the fundamental challenge for Ms. Lincoln: How does this bill benefit Americans. The burden of proof is on her to illustrate the advantages. She voted in favor of the bill. There’s no stepping back from that regardless of what procedural approach either House takes moving forward.

Thus, choosing to focus so much time on procedure as opposed to the importance of passing the Senate version of the bill is a curious political strategy. In short, it feels like a red herring.

7 of the 8 GOP candidates for U.S. Senate will be on-hand for their debate being held this evening at 6:30 p.m. at the UALR Bowen School of Law. Scott Inman of KATV Channel 7 will be moderating. Rep. John Boozman will not attend his office reports, and he is sending Sarah Huckabee, daughter of former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee in his place.

Andrew DeMillo of AP writes,

It’s a familiar story that played out two different ways decades ago. For David Pryor in 1972, it resulted in a loss to incumbent Sen. John McClellan that still stings him to this day. For Dale Bumpers in 1974, it was a triumph over then-Sen. J. William Fulbright that helped solidify his reputation as a political giant killer.

There are echoes of both races in the high-profile matchup between Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Bill Halter in the May 18 Democratic primary.

Lincoln hopes it’ll be 1972 all over again, while Halter is looking for a 1974 rerun.

I elaborated on the Fulbright-Bumpers race in this post in February. It’s certainly the outcome Ms. Lincoln is hoping to avoid.

Here’s the first installment of The Arkansas Election Line brought to you by Blake’s Think Tank, Talk Business and The Tolbert Report.

Our current assessment of the race today is: Leans Republican.

The Democratic primary leans towards incumbent US Sen. Blanche Lincoln, although her support is dwindling by the hour. In the Republican Primary 3rd district congressman John Boozman has an edge over the 7 other candidates primarily because of his popularity in the 3rd district where the GOP primary will be decided.

Tomorrow: AR 1st Congressional District

Read from from The Tolbert Report and Talk Business.

I previously noted that the AFL-CIO committed $4 million dollars towards a coordinated effort on behalf of Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. That effort, which cannot directly involve the Halter campaign, has begun.

Sen. Blache Lincoln’s campaign responded on her Web site rebutting the claims asserted in the ad.

Here’s an observation: The Halter campaign has launched three television ads, two radio ads and has received a ton of free press, particularly on television. Mr. Halter is running hard and fast, mimicking many of the things he did in his successful race for Lt. Governor. I’m not suggesting the same outcome, but to me it feels like the Lincoln campaign is in a constant state of reaction.

It began the week Mr. Halter announced. The Lincoln campaign was silent for four days (including missing an opportunity to define Mr. Halter by responding “no comment” to a request from The New York Times, among others) and despite two failed tries at pinning something on Mr. Halter: one painting Mr. Halter as wishy-washy on the public option and the other suggesting that some of Mr. Halter’s announced “endorsements” were made up, the Lincoln camp seems to be capitulating to Mr. Halter.  This is yet another example, isn’t it?

I’m wondering whyt the Lincoln campaign hasn’t taken Mr. Halter’s pro-union ties and made more of it. Maybe it speaks for itself. Maybe the ads are coming?

Lt. Gov. Bill Halter released his third television ad today. All Arkansas Scholarship Lottery all the time.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln is urging the Senate to take up the Promoting American Agricultural and Medical Exports to Cuba Act of 2009. In letter to Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus she writes, in part,

In a July 2007 report requested by your Committee, the U.S. International Trade Commission found that relaxing trade financing and travel restrictions on Cuba could result in a near doubling of U.S. agricultural exports to that country.  A 2001 study by Parr Rosson and Flynn Adcock of Texas A&M University, estimates even greater gains, with annual exports totaling up to $1.2 billion if sanctions were to be fully removed.  Since the distance between Havana and the U.S. Gulf Ports is less than 700 miles, as compared to more than 1600 miles for Canada and 4000 miles or more for Brazil and Argentina, (our main agricultural export competitors in this hemisphere), we are blessed with a natural logistical advantage for shipping goods to Cuba that we should be exploiting.

While we do not condone Cuba’s repressive government, it is quite clear that our decades-old policy of attempting to weaken that government through economic isolation has failed to achieve its objectives.    If the U.S. government has been able to engage constructively with other Communist governments such as China and Vietnam, why not with the government of Cuba?

Follow the link below for the full text of the letter.

(more…)

Lt. Gov. Bill Halter hosted his first public campaign event yesterday in Pine Bluff. It was a town hall meeting. I wasn’t there, but here’s what Stephens Media had to say about it.

Halter held his first town hall meeting as a candidate for the U.S. Senate here in Jefferson County, which has the second highest volume of lottery ticket sales in the state. He spent as much time on extolling the scholarships the games will produce as he did on issues in Washington that affect his home state.

Lt. Gov. Bill Halter launched two radio advertisements today. One ad features Pine Bluff Justice of the Peace Jimmy Lee Fisher and the other features state Rep. Otis Davis of Earle. Stopping the privatization of social security and the Arkansas Scholarship Lottery are the major points.