Much has and will continue to be made today about the outcome of yesterdays elections in New Jersey, Virgina, New York and California. In case you’ve been asleep, on vacation, or avoiding cable news, New Jersey and Virginia, both states that went for President Barack Obama in 2008, elected Republican governors. In New York’s 23rd congressional district, a Democrat won for the first time in more than one hundred years. And in California’s 10th congressional district, a Democrat won a special election in which the Republicans invested very little.
So what does it all mean? It depends on your perspective, I suppose. Here are five (limited) lessons from last night.
Lesson 1: Incumbency will prove to be a liability, not an asset, in 2010, particularly for Democrats.
In New Jersey, Democrat Jon Corzine was fairly unpopular after completing his first term. Adding to the mix was his credential as a former CEO of Goldman Sachs and a high speed car accident in which he failed to wear his seat belt. He also suffered from silly campaign attempts to call his opponent, Chris Christie, fat.
In New Jersey, Mr. Corzine was faced with syrocketing property taxes (the nation’s highest), rising unemployment and persistent budget deficits. He did everything he could to try and saddle former President George W. Bush with these problems, and failed. Looking ahead, one can except that voters will hold incumbents – particularly Democratic incumbents – accountable for the economy, whether the blame fairly rests with Mr. Obama or not.
Lesson 2: Republican candidates that champion jobs and infrastructure improvements over wedge social issues can resonate voters.
In Virginia, Robert McDonnell defeated Creigh Deeds in a landslide that everyone saw coming. Since 1977, voters in Virginia have elected the candidate of a party that is not in the White House. 2009 continued that trend. Again, you have a candidate in Mr. McDonnell who looked the part. Mr. Deeds, on the other hand, ignored Mr. Obama’s playbook and failed to mobilize voters in democratic strongholds. He failed to court black voters and, in a odd political calculation, ran away from Mr. Obama until to was too late. Additionally, Mr. McDonnell managed to capture the Obama change message and make it work for Republicans. “And what we need you to do is go find those people who believe in these limited conservative principles that we’ve laid out in the last six months, that believe free enterprise and the private sector is the key to economic prosperity,” he said. Republicans on the ballot in 2010 would do well to listen.
Lesson 3: The fact that the Obama base in New Jersey and Virginia stayed home means absolutely nothing.
In both New Jersey and Virginia exit polls show that Mr. Obama was not a factor in voter decision. Furthermore, both Democratic candidates failed to mobilize the Democratic Party base in the same manner that Mr. Obama was able to do in 2008. In Virginia, the electorate that turned out last night supported John McCain 51%-43% (Mr. Obama won Virginia 53%-47%). In New Jersey, Mr. Obama maintains a healthy approval rating of 57%.
Most importantly, Mr. Obama’s name wasn’t on the ballot. We won’t know how his base feels until 2012, which is when the only referendum on his presidency takes place.
In other words: Democrats on the ballot in 2010 are on their own.
Lesson 4: There is a battle raging in the GOP between candidates driven towards an economic message and candidates determined to focus on social issues.
New York’s 23rd congressional district hasn’t elected a Democrat in more than 100 years. If this race demonstrates anything (other than net gain for Democrats in the House) it’s that the Republican party remains fragmented. A moderate GOP candidate in favor of gay rights, abortion rights and Mr. Obama’s stimulus plan was all but run-out of the primary by editorial writers and radio talking heads creating a circus in the state GOP. Conservative candidate, Douglas L. Hoffman, invoked Glenn Beck, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty and the Glub for Growth in an effort to trumpet his conservative credentials. While he ended up garnering GOP votes, he lost 49%-46% to Democrat Bill Owens suggesting that right wing ideologues still don’t resonate, even Republican strongholds.
This will continue to plague the GOP as candidates like Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin vie for the right wing of the party and suck up a lot of the political oxygen. Who will emerge nationally with the kind of message that worked in Virginia? One guess: Mississippi governor Haley Barbour.
Lesson 5: Every congressional seat matters.
In California’s 10th congressional district, Lt. Governor John Garamendi won a special election for a seat vacated by a Democrat. He defeated Republican David Harmer, 53%-42%, a margin much closer than experts predicted. The RNC walked away from the seat long ago leaving Mr. Hamer to fend for himself. While eleven points seems a lot, with a contentious year ahead the GOP may re-think the decision to pass on this seat.
In the last six special elections the Democrats are a perfect 6-0.