Sarah Palin: The Process of Elimination Pick
This morning, Republican presidential candidate John McCain announced that Sarah Palin, the 44-year-old governor of Alaska, will be his running mate. Admittedly, when I first heard the news I said, “Huh? McCain’s really going to select a first term governor from a state far, far away. What does that do to his experience argument? Can she hang with Joe Biden in a debate?” But in thinking about his options, I don’t believe he had any other choice.
President George W. Bush’s approval numbers are so bad that he couldn’t risk ay continued to link to his administration (McCain voted with Bush 90% of the time). I believe that immediately eliminated two intriguing candidates: Sec. of State Condoleeza Rice and former OMB Director Rob Portman.
The Republican primary was bruising and it exposed deep flaws in many of the candidates. Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani appeared to be asleep during most of their short-lived candidacy. Their performances, pitiful as they were, eliminated them from consideration (among other reasons, of course).
A few weeks ago, Mark Halperin of TIME magazine suggested that McCain was looking for a non-traditional pick: someone with loads of business experience and no connection to Washington. Enter Fed Ex CEO Fred Smith, former E-Bay CEO Meg Whitman and former HP CEO Carly Fiorina. One big problem: they’ve never run for office before and have no political experience. If something were to happen to McCain would the American public be comfortable with such an unprepared person in the Situation Room? The answer is no.
Of the eligible Republican males still left standing: Mike Huckabee, Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney, Obama’s selection of Biden doomed any outside chance they might have had. For Huckabee and Pawlenty they bring no foreign policy experience to the ticket. On stage, could a former governor from Arkansas or a youthful governor of Minnesota hold their own when talking about Iraq, Afghanistan, Georgia, Russia, Iran or North Korea? I don’t think so.
Romney was eliminated when McCain decided that the only way to attack Biden was to use comments Biden had made about Obama’s experience and qualifications. Well, no one hammered John McCain more on his own experience and qualifications than Romney. McCain kicked the door open, and had he picked Romney, Obama would have beat him over the head with it.
Women have been a testy demographic for the Democratic Party. Sen. Hillary Clinton losing out on the nomination and then being passed over for VP bothered a substantial chunk of to the point that said many have said they’d be open to voting for McCain. Thus, McCain’s attention turned to women. Such transparency will end up harming him in the end because I think it’s silly (not to mention condescending) to believe that he could capture these women simply by putting a woman on the ticket. Wake up, man.
But let’s play it out just for fun. Assume, for a brief moment, that McCain’s belief was correct and a female VP would bring over these disenfranchised, angry Hillary voters. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas appears the most qualified of any of the women on the national stage to be President. But according to Chuck Todd of NBC News she and McCain “hate each other.” Mark her off the list. Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snow also serve in the Senate. Off-hand, I can’t offer a good reason why they wouldn’t be considered, except that they often vote with the Democrats on social issues, and my guess is that they’d alienate the vocal conservative wing that kicked my recommended choice for the job, Tom Ridge, to the curb (Mr. Ridge is pro-choice).
The only other Republican female with executive and national experience is former New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman. She served as the Administrator of the EPA under Bush but left, disgruntled, and wrote a tough book about her experiences. Driller John and Green Christine would not have been the best ideological fit at time when energy is at the forefront of international political discourse.
So who’s left? A female governor of Alaska named Sarah Palin. She’s very conservative, attractive and articulate. Her husband’s a fisherman and they have five children (one soon to be headed to Iraq, another with Down syndrome). Most importantly, McCain hopes, she’s inspiring. Not just to women (although she better) but to Republicans who have been worrying for months that McCain is too dull to drive people to the polls.
It’s too early to put a grade on Gov. Palin; to do so would be unfair. My intial assessment is that the pick is based on a faulty premise and thus is a poor one. I also believe that she undercuts McCain’s experience argument, his strongest, because voters and media pundits will question whether she’s prepared to be President should something to happen to McCain (McCain’s point that the White House isn’t the place for on-the-job training can’t be made effectively any more.)
But Palin isn’t a “Hail Mary”as many pundits have suggested, although it’s easy to go there. She’s the only choice McCain had; the only one left when he finished crossing off names. The next 60 days will demostrate whether that is good or bad for the Republicans.


August 29th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
August 29th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
August 30th, 2008 at 7:08 am