The New York Times comes to Arkansas to explore why the Obama campaign is essentially bypassing it in the 2008 election. It’s a very good question. After all, Arkansas has been trending Democratic in the past four years, including electing a new slate of Democratic Party officers to all of the consitutional offices while preserving the position of incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor (he faces opposition this November only from the Green Party).

Yes, Hillary Clinton trounced Obama in the primary by 43 points, his worst defeat. That has clearly discouraged the Obama campaign, and it has raised questions about Obama’s ability to win Arkansas in the fall. But Arkansas is a winnable state. Here’s why:

It’s the economy, stupid. According to a Rasmussen Poll released Thursday shows Obama polling more favorable than McCain among voters making less than $40,000. In 2002, Arkansas had a per capita personal income of $23,556. According a Rasmussen state poll, 45% of Arkansas voters named the economy as the number one issue of the election (25% said the war in Iraq was the top issue). If the economy remains the biggest issue, the challenger (Obama in this case) stands a far better chance (see 1992).

Democrats are encroaching on Republican territories. The Obama campaign should also be encouraged by the growing enclave of likely Democratic voters in Northwest Arkansas (where the Hispanic population is also growing) and the opportunity to mobilize African-Americans across the state. After all, in national polls, Obama leads McCain among African-American voters 94% - 5%. Obama also leads McCain by 21% among Hispanic voters.

Arkansas is a blue state. As of January, there were 57,851 registered Democrats and 44,437 registered Republicans in Arkansas. There are 1.57 million registered voters in Arkansas, a substantal number of which remain unaffiliated. To give context to that number, let’s look at the 2006 statewide elections. Beebe, a Democrat, defeated Asa Hutchinson, a Republican and Bush administration official, 430,765 to 315,040 in the 2006 gubernatorial election. That’s a 15% margin of victory. Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, a Democrat, beat Jim Holt, a Republican, by 15% as well, garnering 437,930 votes (It should also be noted that Holt received 45% of the vote against incumbent US Sen. Blanche Lincoln in 2004; he received 42% of the vote in 2006 with much better name identification). Atty. Gen. Dustin McDaniel, a Democrat, beat Gunner DeLay, a Republican, by 21% and received 443,476 votes across the state. State Treas. Martha Shoffner, a Democrat, beat Chris Morris, a Republican, by 23% and received 450,450 votes. Each of these candidates were running in open seats.

Democratic Party voting rolls are growing. In the United States, the number of registered Democrats has increased substantially, while the number of registered Republicans has decreased (a reverse from the trend leading into the 2004 election).

There are Hillary Clinton voters to be had. Obama’s biggest challenge in Arkansas is what Sheila Bronfman, a friend, Hillary Clinton supporter and political animal of the highest order, said when she was asked whether she’d put an Obama sign in her yard: “. . . it’s just hard for me to do that. I just have to decide how far I want to go.” For Obama to win Arkansas, he has to get these Democats - die hard Hillary supporters and there are many - to rally behind him.

Nationally, only 80% of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama (compared to 87% of Republicans that will vote for McCain). In Arkansas, that number plummets. According to a Rasmussen Poll released in July, only 67% of Democrats in Arkansas support Obama (compared to 91% of Republicans that support McCain). The poll showed McCain leading Obama 52% - 39%.

Hendrix College professor Jay Barth is right when he says, ” “Whether they [Arkansas Democrats] like it or not, they’re going to be tied to Obama. They might as well get the benefits out of it.”

And why not? After all, on June 29th, Clinton issued this statement: “Today, Barack and I were in Unity to celebrate a unified Democratic Party focused on electing him the next president. I was proud to stand with him today, and I will do whatever I can to help his campaign between now and November.”

Arkansas remains a pink state primarily because Arkansas Democrats, many of whom supported Clinton, have yet to line up behind Obama. If they get off the fence, Obama can win Arkansas.