For those of you that are electoral politics junkies, you’ve probably been looking at the map and wondering whether the 2008 election will be decided in Florida, Ohio or somewhere else. It’s still too early to tell, but Stuart Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report doesn’t expect the electoral map to change all that much.

In his view, Obama could win the popular vote and lose the electoral college vote if things play out the way he speculates. That’s because Obama’s likely to run up the score in New York, California and Illinois. But in a winner-take-all system, winning by 1 vote or 1 million votes has the same result.

Chuck Todd of NBC News said this morning on “Morning Joe” that it would be “unprecedented” for the electoral map to stay the same for three consecutive elections. Todd also compared Obama’s general election strategy to the “spread offense” in football and noted that his plan was to try and “bankrupt McCain” and “force him to spend money in places he otherwise wouldn’t.” Sen. Claire McCaskill said Obama was “absolutely running a fifty-state strategy.” John Brummett, writing for the Arkansas News Bureau, speculates how Obama might win in November.

So where is this election going to be decided? It’s hard to say at this point, but here are the states I think will be key battlegrounds. Unlike Rothenberg, my view is that the map, as it stands today, gives Obama the edge. Don’t forget, the benefit of Obama having to run through an entire Democratic Party primary is that he established organizations in all fifty states. That infrastructure, coupled with what he can gain from Sen. Hillary Clinton’s ground forces and volunteers, will be invaluable in getting a leg up on Sen. John McCain who’s been sitting back and raising money. Couple that with Obama’s incredible fundraising abilities, you tell me whether you think this election leans toward McCain?

Here’s my view of the map:

Bush states in play for Obama:

Missouri - Sen. Claire McCaskill has been organizing for Obama from the beginning, and will be on the short-list for VP. Obama won a close primary fight here. Advantage: McCain.

Iowa - Iowa has been trending Democratic for a while. Sen. Tom Harkin is up for re-election in 2008, and if he can pull the machine in line (with the help for fmr. Gov. Tom Viksack), this state could be close. Obama pulled off a surprising victory in the caucuses. College students will be on campus. Advantage: Obama.

Virginia - Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner is on the ballot in 2008 Senate race to replace Sen. John Warner. Warner is incredibly popular. Gov. Tim Kaine has been an Obama supporter, and the changing demographics in the north really help Obama. Advantage: Obama.

Colorado - Democratic Governor. Democratic Senator. Senate race to replace Sen. Wayne Allard, a Republican, that is leaning Democratic. Advantage: Obama.

Nevada - The Democratic Party made it an early state in the selection process for a reason. Advantage: McCain.

North Carolina - Sen. Mike Easley endorsed Clinton, which may be a sign that Obama can’t win this state in November. Still, with a substantial African-American population, and John Edwards, Obama will be more competitive here than either Gore or Kerry. Obama kicked off his new campaign today in the Tar Heel State. That has to tell us something. Advantage: McCain.

Arkansas - Hillary Clinton’s biggest primary victory came in Arkansas. Democrats rode into office in 2006 on a tidal wave and, since 1994, the state has been trending Democratic. Sen. Mark Pryor is unopposed for re-election, and the state Republican operation could barely field candidates in down-ticket races. If the state party apparatus wants to go to work for Obama, he could make it competitive. Putting Hillary Clinton, Gov. Mike Beebe or Gen. Wes Clark on the ticket would help. Advantage: McCain.

Ohio - The big state in 2004. Pundits have it on the radar again in 2008, although I’m not sure how competitive Obama can be without Sen. Ted Strickland on the ticket. Same problem here that may plague him in Michigan unless his economic message (which he kicks off today) can resonate. McCain can’t seem to get organized either. Advantage: McCain.

Florida - Sorry. Too much “Recount.” Gov. Charlie Crist, a Republican, is incredibly popular and has to be on McCain’s short list of the VP. It’s going to be close enough to command Obama’s attention - and dollars. That may or may not be a good thing when you look at the other states on the map. Advantage: McCain.

Georgia - What will Libertarian candidate Bob Barr’s candidacy have on McCain’s efforts in the Peach State? It’s hard to say at this point, but Obama did very well in the primary, and Democratic voters will be energized at the prospect of Obama winning. You may here lots of comparisons to Ralph Nader in the coming weeks, especially if Obama’s competitive. Advantage: McCain.

Gore/Kerry states in play for McCain:

Michigan - The state economy is in the tank, which makes it curious that McCain, who claims not to know much about economics, would be strong here. But Obama’s had trouble with working class voters, for whatever reason. That, and Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, a Democrat, is embroiled in a scandal that could spark voter backlash against the Party. With 18 electoral votes at stake, this has to worry the Obama camp. Advantage: Obama.

Swing states in play (states split between 2000 and 2004):

New Hampshire - Fmr. Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, is leading in her Senate race against the incumbent John Sununu. With her on the ballot, Obama should ride lots of voter support to the polls. Advantage: Obama.

New Mexico - There’s another Senate race on the ballot in New Mexico (to replace Sen. Pete Dominici) and the Democrats appear to be doing well. Gov. Bill Richardson controls the state apparatus, and this state went for Gore in 2000. Advantage: Obama.

Bush states safe for McCain:

Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Louisiana. Total Electoral Votes: 144.

Gore/Kerry states safe for Obama:

Oregon, Washington, California, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, New York, Massachusetts, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Maryland, Rhode Island, Vermont, Maine, Pennsylvania and Hawaii. Total Electoral Votes: 236.

If you re-calbirate the map, Obama wins 29 1- 240. Of course, this will change about 100 times between now and November.