Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean proclaimed last week that superdelegates needed to make up their mind in June, and this race - the feisty one between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton - needed to be decided early in the summer.  June 4th, to be precise.

But the events of the last seventy-hours have really changed the landscape of this campaign.  Reverend Jeremiah Wright re-emerged, selfishly, and re-gained the spotlight.  Obama hit back, and then he REALLY hit back.  However, his poll numbers in the Tar Heel State sank, and the popular Democratic governor, Mike Easley, endorsed Clinton.

The numbers being what they are, it is still very difficult to conceive how Clinton runs ahead of Obama in either pledged delegates or popular vote.  The latter, assuming she can keep it within five points in North Carolina, and run up the score in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico, is more probable, but still a statistical longshot.

But as we’ve known for months now, this race is about the 800 or so superdelegates and PLEO’s who, established by Party rules, are there to use their wisdom and guidance to assist the pledged delegates (regular voters just like you and me) in nominating a winner.

In his column this week, Arkansas News Bureau columnist David Sanders writes,

Obama hasn’t been able to put her away and now Hillary is mounting a comeback. Rev. Wright’s fascination with the spotlight will continue to isolate Obama, which will make her appear more desirable to the Democratic voters who have yet to vote. There is a real possibility that the superdelegates could become consumed with misgivings about nominating a candidate who increasingly appears to be unelectable. And as long as that reality exists, she isn’t going away.

Sanders is right on the money.   In fact, I’ve received more communication from people about Rev. Wright than I have about any other political topic since the day of the Pennsylvania primary.  Despite my own opinion that the Wright spectacle is just that, it seems to matter to voters.  It may hurt Obama at the polls; it may not.  We’ll see.  But his bigger challenge is keeping superdelegates and PLEO’s confident that he can win in November.

This morning, Politico reported that Obama has won the Congressional superdelegates, despite roughly eighty members who’ve yet to state their preference.  But remember, these folks can change their mind at any point prior to their vote on the floor of the convention.

According to NPR, Clinton ordered her staff to schedule more events in North Carolina and Indiana.   The events of the last seventy-two  hours have demonstrated Clinton’s committment and belief that she can win this race, statistical improbabilities aside.

One thing appears certain, Rev. Wright has knocked Obama off his stride, again.

It’s safe to say this was coming, especially in light of Senator Barack Obama’s plummeting poll numbers in North Carolina and Governor Mike Easley endorsing Senator Hillary Clinton.

Memphis Attorney Darrel Castle has been nominated by the Constitution Party for Vice President of the United States. Castle will be the running mate of Chuck Baldwin who defeated former Ambassador Alan Keyes for the presidential nomination.

Here’s the Arkansas connection:  Castle is the uncle of Little Rock Attorney David Kamps—though it should be noted the two differ philosophically .  Castle was in Little Rock when Kamps and his wife attorney Jill Stewart married a few years ago.

The Constitution Party hopes to be on the November ballot in 40 states.

Driving the Little Rock streets this weekend, I noticed the overwhelming number of yard signs representing candidates running for one of many judicial positions in Pulaski County.  Two conversations later, I thought I would provide a complete listing of who is running for what.  Perhaps the most interesting of these races are in the Circuit division where incumbent Judge Mary McGowan faces opposition and Cathi Compton, wife of U.S. District Court Judge Bill Wilson is in a three-way race.  Judge Wendell Griffin also faces opposition from Judge Rita Gruber in a Court of Appeals race.  And don’t ignore the race between Courtney Henry and Ron Williams for the Court of Appeals seat in northwest Arkansas.  Jim Holt has gotten involved in that one.

Pulaski County District Judge

District Court Judge (Criminal)
Alice Lightle
Hugh Finkelstein
Ernest Sanders, Jr.

District Court Judge (Traffic)
Judge Vic Fleming (unopposed)

District Court Judge (Environmental)
Mark D. Leverett
Slocum Pickell
Gary Sullivan
Ryan Allen

District Court Judge (Wrightsville Division)
Rita Bailey
Veletta Smith
Kathy Hall
Diana Maulding
Thomas Christopher Walton
Trey Wright

Pulaski County Circuit Court

District 06, Division 06, Subdistrict 6.2
Cathi Compton
Melissa Gilbert
Jewel “Cricket” Harper

District 06, Divsion 09, At-Large
Judge Mary McGowan
Cecily Patterson Skarda

District 06, Division 02, Subdistrict 6.2
Judge Chris Piazza (unopposed)

District 06, Division 03, Subdistrict 6.2
Judge Jay Moody (unopposed)

District 06, Division 04, Subdistrict 6.2
Judge Herb Wright (unopposed)

District 06, Division 06, Subdistrict 6.2
Judge Tim Fox (unopposed)

District 06, Division 07, Subdistrict 6.2
Judge Barry Sims (unopposed)

District 06, Divsion 08, Subdistrict 6.1
Judge Wiley Branton (unopposed)

District 06,  Division 10, Subdistrict 6.2
Judge Joyce Williams Warren (unopposed)

District 06, Division 12, Subdistrict 6.2
Judge Collins Kilgore (unopposed)

District 06, Division 14, Subdistrict 6.2
Judge Vann Smith (unopposed)

District 06, Division 15, Subdistrict 6.2
Judge Dick Moore (unopposed)

Arkansas Court of Appeals

Associate Judge District 06, Position 01
Judge Wendell Griffin (incumbent)
Judge Rita Gruber

Associate Judge District 03, Position 02
Courtney Henry
Ron Williams

He’s also speaking live from the National Press Club this morning.  David Axelrod from the Barack Obama campaign appeared on MSNBC this morning saying, in effect,  that the Obama campaign has said over and over that it disagrees with a lot of what Wright had to say, but that he’s free to speak wherever and whenever he wants.

This issue has found its way to North Carolina where advertisements are running asking candidates to state whether they support Obama “associates” including Rev. Wright.

John Brummett points a finger at Bill Clinton making race matters a bigger issue in this campaign.

The New York Post reports that the New York Times will embark on its first mass firing in its 156-year history.   From this story, it appears that the Metro desk will absorb a bulk of the cuts.  The Times has also seen a decline in online ad revenue from a year ago, prompting the paper to experiment with welcome ads.   According to Editor & Publisher, “A little more than one third of the top 30 newspaper Web sites reported an increase in the time spent per person in March, according to new data from Nielsen Online.”

Thanks to Lance Turner for the links.

The rain has been falling steadily here in Little Rock. The big news surrounding Darren McFadden and Felix Jones’ selection in the first round of the NFL draft yesterday dominated Arkansas circles. The marathon draft (which doesn’t last nearly as long as the painful NBA playoffs) continues today. Marcus Harrison was picked up in the third round. Peyton Hillis and Marcus Monk are hoping to get taken today.

Hillary Clinton challenged Barack Obama to a Lincoln-Douglas style debate. He declined. He also played hoops in Indiana where basketball is king.

Eleanor Clift of Newsweek files this column about the Clintons and the scores they’ll have to settle if Hillary wins. Charlie Cook writes, “As long as Clinton is winning, she can’t quit. But even in victory, she isn’t getting any closer to securing the nomination.”

Elizabeth Edwards speaks out against the media in the New York Times. Thomas Edsall of the Huffington Post says the media has jumped ship from Obama and are now helping Clinton by suggesting that Obama can’t win the general election. Interesting in light of this AP story illustrating how much the electoral map favors the Democrats in the fall.  Lance Turner picks up on this over at his blog.

Maureen Dowd suggests this is a perilous time for Obama to “lose his fizz.”

Susan Milligan of the Boston Globe details the effect of the long campaign on the candidates. Jonathan Weisman of the Washington Post writes about the toll of the campaign on the staff.

According to a Harvard survey, 70% of Democrats age 18-24 favor Obama.

Enjoy your Sunday afternoon.

An e-mail just came through indicating that Senator Mark Pryor will host a fundraiser for Joe White, a Democratic State Senate candidate in Faulkner County. White’s challenging incumbent Sen. Gilbert Baker whom the Arkansas Times reports will benefit from help from Mike Huckabee.

NBC has called Pennsylvania for Hillary Clinton. I’ll keep updating the site throughout the night with reactions, but there’s the call. Right now, the MSNBC talking heads say this is about money. Percentages, which was the hot topic yesterday and today, seem to still be an issue. We’ll see . . .

UPDATE: Tim Russert just said that this thing will not end tonight. Clinton will march on to Indiana and hope for victory. How aggressive and how robust will depend on how much she can raise. Russert says the message to superdelegates will be money not margin of victory.

UPDATE II: The writers for the Pennsylvania Inquirer are wondering what the final margin will be. They seem a bit perplexed that all of the networks have called it so soon. Terry McAuliffe is spinning hard for Clinton on MSNBC. He says Clinton will overtake Obama in the popular vote when things wrap up in June. No word from the Obama camp yet. Of course, his goalposts change for each contest. Today, it seems winning big states (as if Clinton will win Texas; or as if Obama will lose NY, CA, MA . . . but nevermind).

UPDATE III: I think Obama’s people need to get on television. The talking heads seem to think that Obama coming from 20+ points down to close the gap to 10 (and maybe less) in the last three weeks. By all accounts Clinton is broke. Right now, the opinion is a huge victory for Clinton. And the the “Obama has to win Indiana” talk has begun.

UPDATE IV: “The atmosphere has a happy buzz,” at Clinton’s HQ reports Nathan Gorenstein.

UPDATE V: Clinton announced that her schedule will take her to Indiana and North Carolina over the next two days. Here are the CNN exit polls. At Obama HQ: ” There’s no whooping going on here, but no one expected that he would win,” according to Marcia Gelbart. Chris Matthews is railing: “mulligan after mulligan after mulligan” when speaking about the Clinton campaign. David Gregory wants to know “why this is such a good night for Clinton?”

UPDATE VI: Here are the county by county results. Slate’s “Hillary Deathwatch” was at 9.9% this morning. Any guess as to what it will be tomorrow? Lots of union signs at the Clinton rally. She’s scheduled to speak soon.

UPDATE VII: Marcia Gelbart reports that Obama’s campaign has begun the concession train.

UPDATE VIII: Obama is scheduled to speak at 9:45 CST according to the New York Times. Here on the television at the crib, MSNBC political director Chuck Todd says the race is over from a delegate perspective. Not big news; or, “that’s one doodle that can’t be undid, homeskillet.” But as McAuliffe noted, this is about big states and the popular vote. DailyKos is calling the Clinton camp on it. Fo shizz . . .

UPDATE IX: Clinton takes the stage.

UPDATE X: Here at the Think Tank there were a few reservations when Clinton opened her speech. Not a very good opening line, but then again, “don’t stop thinking about tomorrow.”

UPDATE XI: An enthusiastic crowd for Clinton. The speech hit the high points for Democrats: medicare, social security, jobs, healthcare . . . It’s safe to say that she avoided an “Easy Rider” moment: “You know, Billy, we blew it.” Good speech.

UPDATE XII: The vote seems to be holding at 8% for Clinton. She’s asking for $5 contributions on her website. Russert says the next two weeks will be “unbelievable.” “Strap yourselves in,” he says. Obama has taken the stage right on schedule.

UPDATE XIII: Obama smartly takes on John McCain, when Clinton had to go - implicitly - at Obama. If you want to review his speech, here’s the text. Another good speech.

UPDATE XIV: The post speech spin is about to begin. Matthews says the Clinton’s believe “this is their party and they will do with it what they will.” Olbermann says “there are a million votes that say otherwise.” Take it, Fredo. It looks like Clinton will gain 15 delegates and win the popular vote by 200,000. Of course, Obama can pick all that back up in North Carolina, which he’ll do.

UPDATE XV: Olbermann and Matthews are wrapping up and turning it over to the MSNBC panel. It appears that Clinton has creeped into double digits. Pat Buchanan is loving Clinton and asks “has Obama peaked?” The New York Times is reporting that Clinton is having her best fundraising night ever by bringing in more than $1 million in the two hours since she was declared the winner. I’ve tried to get on her website five times in the last hour and I’ve been delayed. The $5 donation thing may be working. Now Politico reports that the number may be close to $2 - $2.5 million. Howard Fineman of Newsweek just said we might see an Elizabeth (but not John) Edwards endorsement of Clinton.

UPDATE XVI: Hillary Clinton will be on the Think Tank favorite “Morning Joe” tomorrow morning on MSNBC. The show kicks off at 5:00 a.m. CST. “The loons! The loons! They’re welcoming us back!”

UPDATE XVII: Todd says that unpledged superdelegates care about the popular vote. Looking at the map, it’s goingdifficult to find any way for her to pick up the necessary votes to win the popular vote (even if you give her Florida). The issue for her is money. She has to win Indiana by at least 10 points and she needs to keep Obama from running up the score in the Tar Heel State and that’s likely to take all of her cash, if not send her further into debt. Surely you’re not serious? “I am serious. And don’t call me Shirley.”

UPDATE  XVIII: Clinton’s fundraising has brought in $2.5 million so far tonight and 80% percent of of that is from new donors.  “It’s our best night,” declares Clinton spokesman Phil Singer.

UPDATE XIX: With 95% of precincts reporting, it seems likely that Clinton will hold onto her 10-point lead.  There are lots of questions about what approach Obama takes tomorrow.  There seems to be consensus from the talking heads that Clinton will continue to turn up the heat on Obama and, essentially, maintain her aggressive and negative tone.   FOX News’ Sean Hannity says “Republicans want to run against Obama now.”

UPDATE XX: The cable news coverage has wrapped.  It’s on to Indiana.  “Don’t get caught watchin’ the paint dry!”

Signing off . . .

Presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain will be in Little Rock on Friday for a fundraiser hosted by former Arkansas governor and McCain foe Mike Huckabee and Asa Hutchinson who lost the 2006 gubernatorial race to Mike Beebe. French Hill and Warren Stephens are listed as Arkansas finance co-chairs for McCain’s campaign. The luncheon will be held at the Capital Hotel.

UPDATE: In addition to the fundraiser at the Capital Hotel, McCain is scheduled to speak at a class at Arkansas Baptist College arranged, allegedly, by Hutchinson who was impressed by the recent Arkansas Democrat Gazette High Profile article on ABC President Fitz Hill. I also hear that he’s been invited to the Clinton School of Public Service.  Anyone want to guess the liklihood of that?  After all, Hutchinson debated Mike Beebe there during the 2006 gubernatorial race.

A record 4.2 million Democrats will head to the polls today to vote in the primary.  The polls close at 8:00 ET.  Watching the early morning talk shows today, the experts seem to think that a double-digit victory for Hillary Clinton is a good win, but a single digit win may force her to determine whether to continue her campaign.  This comes on the heels of FEC reports showing the Clinton campaign in debt.

Philadelphia Inquirer reporters are live blogging throughout the day.    Politico has “Five things to watch in Pennsylvania.”

Michelle Cottle of the New Republic has a scathing column about the internal strife of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.  As you can imagine, the tension surrounds Mark Penn, but it doesn’t stop there.  Observes Cottle, “Rife with big egos and competing centers of influence–veterans of Hillary’s First Lady days, relative newbies from her Senate office, Bill’s ‘92 people, Bill’s ‘96 people–Team Hillary has never been a comfortably cohesive group. In happier times, discipline was easier to maintain. But, as this race has grown longer and rougher, the staff’s nerves and relations have been badly strained by persistent financial troubles and constant turf wars, not to mention one increasingly unmanageable ex-president. Some days, it’s hard to remember that, just six months ago, the campaign was regarded as a highly disciplined machine. More and more, it resembles an unruly rock band plagued by dysfunction and public infighting. From Williams’s arrival to Solis Doyle’s demise to Penn’s ascent, fall, and return, the ebb and flow of power in Hillaryland over the past few months has left multiple people acting like they are in charge–and no one really in control.”

Pennsylvania residents go to the polls tomorrow night to vote in the Democratic Party primary. For a ncie history of the Pennsylvania electorate, Michael Barone has a good piece in the Wall Street Journal. Linda Feldmann writes “In Pennsylvania, White Male Vote is Key” in the Christian Science Monitor. John Dickerson of Slate spends the final days of the campaign with Barack Obama.

Watching “Morning Joe,” a Think Tank favorite, Mike Barnicle just said “this thing is done. Barack Obama is going to be the nominee.” Barnicle’s basing that on money. According to the latest FEC reports, Obama has about $41 million cash on hand; Hillary Clinton appears to be $1 millon in debt.

UPDATE: There has been an overwhelming number of people registering to vote - mostly Democrats - in the Pennsylvania primary.  These people would never show up on the telephone listings of pollsters, so they’re an argument that the sampling doesn’t take into considering their impact on the outcome of the election.  A friend passes along this analysis from the Wall Street Journal about the impact of the new registrants on  Tuesday’s primary.  According to reports, 217,000 people have registered for the first time and 178,000 voters have changed their party affiliation.

Hillary Clinton - 52%
Barack Obama - 42%
Source: Suffolk University

Hillary Clinton - 51%
Barack Obama - 44%
Source: Quinnipiac University