Several polls were released today regarding the upcoming presidential primary between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.  According to Insider Advantage, Clinton leads Obama 47% - 43%.  The Belo Texas Tracking Poll has the race a statistical dead heat with Clinton leading Obama 46% - 45%.  However, a People Calling People Survey has Obama leading 40% - 33%.  A figure that has to please the Clinton camp is that according to the PCP Survey, Clinton edged Obama in early voting 41% - 38%.

On the money front, Clinton announced that she raised $35 million in February - a huge number.  However, Obama is expected to announce in the next day or so that his campaign raised more than $50 million - a monster number.  You can tell from the ad buys that it was a good month for Obama.  According to First Read, “Watching local TV here in Ohio, it feels like Obama has a 4-to-1 advantage — with SEIU, UFCW and Obama just blitzing the airwaves compared with Clinton. It’s happening in all four states. In fact, per TV ad expert Evan Tracey, Obama has outspent Clinton $23 million to $14 million in the last 30 days.”

When asked about Obama’s TV buys, Clinton ad chief Mandy Grunwald replied, “They’re trying to crush us.”

Several key Clinton supporters, including Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, said that winning Texas was critical to her campaign moving forward.  They’re both echoing the words of Bill Clinton who remarked that she must win both Texas and Ohio to keep her campaign viable.

Karen Tumulty of Time, writing a piece on Bill Clinton, addresses the issue “political malpractice” committed by the Clinton campaign.  “But he is appalled, friends and aides say, by what he has privately described as “political malpractice” by Hillary’s campaign. It spent money with abandon in the earliest primaries and assumed that the race would not last past Super Tuesday, on Feb. 5 — and failed to prepare for any of the states that followed. Two weeks before the Texas primary, Bill Clinton telephoned Waco insurance mogul and philanthropist Bernard Rapoport, a friend and backer since the 1970s. Rapoport told Clinton that this was the first contact he had had from anyone on the campaign. “He was madder than mad,” Rapoport says. “He was right. There was so much we could have done, but we never heard from anyone at headquarters.”"

According to Anne Kornblut and Shaighlah Murray of The Washington Post, Clinton is pouring all of her resources into the March 4th states.

Former State Representative Phil Wyrick said that he intends to run for Pulaski County Judge according to an e-mail sent to The Think Tank.  Wyrick served as head of the Livestock and Poultry Commission under Governor Mike Huckabee and has a farm in Mabelvale where he raises cattle.  He’s also the husband of Little Rock City Director B.J. Wyrick.

According to the e-mail, “Wyrick said his first issue — and his second and third — is the County Jail. He said he doesn’t have an exact plan yet and says it will likely take four years (two terms) to get the facility operating at its needed level, but he was committed to the task. He said Sheriff Doc Holladay had made a good start on the jail, but needed leadership from the county for the necessary money.  Wyrick said incumbent Judge Buddy Villines had been “MIA” on the jail issue. Villines is a Democrat. But Wyrick said his race would have little to do with partisan issues. “I’m a conservative,” Wyrick said. “But I’ve been a manager, both in state government and my private business.” He said he had no designs on starting a political career by running. “We have to make the jail work.””

It’s no secret that the jail is a huge issue in Pulaski County.  And it doesn’t appear to a partisan issue.  I’ve heard Mayor Mark Stodola speak several times about the need for a jail and the County’s lack of leadership on the issue, despite leading the efforts of such projects as the Big Dam Bridge.

In 2006, Judge Villines and the Little Rock Chamber ran a campaign to try and pass  a tax increase to fund the jail.  Tagged “the jail tax” by the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, the measure failed.

Wyrick will be a single issue candidate.  The jail is Judge Villines’ “achilles heal” according to political insiders, although they caution that the City isn’t devoid of responsibility.  How will Mrs. Wyrick handle questions when attention is re-directed to the City?

It’s an interesting dilemma and should make for a fine campaign, so long as it stays positive.  As I’ve advocated many times in this space, there should be total transparency from both the county and city on the issue of the jail.

Hopefully a competitive campaign will better inform the public.

Dan Balz of the Washington Post sums it up well,

“In what could be a decisive week in the Democratic campaign, the rising candidate (Barack Obama) is receiving accolades for big crowds, the enthusiasm of his supporters, his apparent ability to inspire a new generation to become active in politics and his facility to have captured the desire for change after eight years of the Bush presidency and more than a decade of polarized politics.

“Those are not insignificant accomplishments, but more than that will be required to actually win the presidency in November and then to govern this still-divided country. Which is why Obama ought to face rigorous questioning in these final days before Ohio and Texas.

“Can he truly be the candidate of MoveOn.org and red-state politicians alike? Have those at different ends of the Democratic political spectrum attributed to him positions — on issues ranging from Iraq to health care to the economy — that are compatible with their own views, but not with the other’s?

“Is there any major issue upon which he parts company with the big labor unions, or has he adopted their agenda in totality? More broadly, where has he shown a willingness to take on some of his own party’s constituencies, and if he’s not willing to do so, how can he suggest that he can bring Republicans and independents into a governing coalition?

“Does his anti-NAFTA rhetoric of the past few weeks reflect his true feelings about trade, or has this been a mostly tactical exercise to attack Clinton? Is he turning his back on what has been a general consensus on trade issues and turning toward a significantly more protectionist stance for the United States?

“What are his real priorities were he to become president? Ending the war, certainly, but exactly how? Health care for all Americans within his first term, though with how much compromise with the Republicans to get it done? Beyond that, where will he focus his attention in his first year in office?

“When would he take on the entitlement challenges of Social Security and Medicare? What does he really think about budget deficits and fiscal discipline? What would he give up to lower the deficit, or does he not think that that matters? What taxes would he raise, other than rolling back the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, which would largely be eaten up paying for health care?

“If President Bush failed to change the tone in Washington, in part because he sought to govern as a conservative, would a President Obama be prepared not to govern as the liberal he has been in the Illinois and U.S. senates in order to change politics in Washington, as he has promised?

“Obama’s success against Clinton to date speaks to his considerable gifts as a politician, but that success does not wash away hard questions that he, or anyone else who seeks to lead the country, should face at such a challenging time.”

Michael Tomasky, writing in The New York Review of Books, surveys the potential for a floor fight at the Democratic National Convention this summer in Denver and discusses two possible remedies for the unsettled issue of what to do about delegates from Florida and Michigan.

“Depending on how the rest of the voting shakes out, the possibility exists of a convention floor fight over the seating of these delegates. And 120 delegates, the estimate of Clinton’s gain that I cited above, could prove decisive. So imagine this situation. Clinton trails Obama by, say, eighty or ninety delegates. Her campaign has already said it will fight if she is within one hundred. If she has won more large states—so far she has won New York and California and she might possibly win Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania— her forces might be overrepresented on the credentials committee. Interestingly, it, too, is chaired by Alexis Herman and James Roosevelt Jr. (as well as Eliseo Roques-Arroyo). So we will have a circumstance in which the candidate who is behind but who has a functional advantage on the committee handling credentials might be able to muscle through a vote that gives her a sufficient number of delegates to vault from second place to first.”

Connecticuty Senator and former presidential candidate Chris Dodd endorsed Barack Obama today. “He is ready to be president and I am ready to support him in this campaign,” Mr. Dodd said at a news conference in Cleveland, The Associated Press reported.

Obama and Hillary Clinton face off tonight in the final debate before the Texas and Ohio primaries. The Cleveland Plain Dealer has a primer on how to watch the debate. The debate will be carried live at 8:00 CST on MSNBC and streamed live on MSNBC.com.

Rumors swirled yesterday about whether Clinton’s campaign was responsible for disseminating a photograph of Obama in Kenya dressed in traditional African garments. Matt Drudge of the Drudge Report obtained a copy of an e-mail allegedly sent by a Clinton staffer that said “”Wouldn’t we be seeing this [photo] on the cover of every magazine if it were [Clinton]?”

I think we can all agree that no matter who sent the e-mail, the intent was to confuse voters into thinking Obama is a Muslim (he’s not). From that, whisperers on the internet intend to link Obama, whose name Jon Stewart aptly reminded the world on Sunday night at the Oscars, rhymes with Osama, as in bin Laden. To unsophisticated voters in Texas and Ohio (whomever sent the e-mail must believe there are plenty), this would be enough for them not to vote for him.

It’s an easy position for the Clinton to defend, if you think about it. Let’s just play out a hypothetical: a Clinton staffer leaks the photo. Drudge (and then everyone) runs it. Obama declares that Clinton is engaging in smear tactics. Clinton denies involvement and when pressed, Clinton campaign chief Maggie Williams says Obama should be ashamed for suggesting that a photo of someone wearing traditional African clothing is a smear.  All the while, the campaign gets the benefit among people who are willing to penalize Obama because they see him dressed in what they might believe are “Muslim clothes.”  Couple that with Williams suggestion that Obama’s slighting “African garments” and you now have the attention of African Americans.

Is this to far-fetched to believe? Sure it is. But for a campaign on the ropes? Debra Saunders of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, “I have to figure that Clintonia is rolling the dice. Her campaign is flailing. Being nice didn’t bump Clinton’s numbers. Along comes a photo that is just a photo of Obama visiting Africa and dressing like the locals, as both tourists and politicians are wont to do. And also a reminder that Obama might seem too exotic to some voters. It’s the wordless way of whispering: Is America ready for a black president?”

It seems that the Arkansas Travelers have moved on the Texas.  Sheila Bronfman, the determined and dedicated coordinator of the Arkansas Travelers, is leading a group of over 60 Thursday on a week long swing through Texas in support of Senator Hillary Clinton.  With some new polls showing Senator Barack Obama now ahead in the Lone Star State, the Travelers hope to replicate their efforts in New Hampshire where they helped Senator Clinton claim victory despite polls indicating she would lose.

Also in Texas is Craig Smith formerly of Little Rock and former Clinton White House Political Director, who’s been called into action in an all out effort to win the state for Senator Hillary Clinton. Smith ran Bill Clinton’s highly successful state field operations in 1992. He’s been doing consulting work nationally and internationally.

I also here that Arkansas native Adrienne Elrod is managing Clinton’s press operations in Texas.   Elrod worked in the Clinton White House, moved back to Little Rock for a stint at the Democratic Party of Arkansas, and then moved back to DC where she worked at the DCCC and on the Hill.

Hillary Clinton strategist and longtime friend Harold Ickes took a swipe at Clinton’s chief strategist, pollster Mark Penn, at a Chrisitan Science Monitor breakfast this morning, according to The Swamp.  “Many people and many pollsters – including our chief strategist—I daresay, [thought] we we had no chance of winning in New Hampshire,” said Ickes.

TEXAS

Barack Obama - 50%
Hillary Clinton - 46%
Source:  CNN/Opinion Research

Barack Obama - 50%
Hillary Clinton - 42%
Source:  American Research Group

OHIO

Hillary Clinton - 51%
Barack Obama - 40%
Source: Quinnipiac University

Hillary Clinton - 47%
Barack Obama - 39%
Source:  Ohio Poll

Hillary Clinton - 50%
Barack Obama - 46%
Source:  Public Policy Polling

Hillary Clinton - 49%
Barack Obama - 39%
Source:  American Research Group

Friends from Wal Mart tell me that the famous (and once required) weekly Saturday morning management meetings instituted by Founder Sam Walton have been changed to monthly meetings—no doubt the result of a diverse and international workforce and an expanding leadership team—not all of whom are based in Northwest Arkansas.

According to First Read, President Clinton gave a speech in Texas yesterday and said that Senator Clinton’s political fate “should be decided in Texas.”  Clinton also predicted that wins here and in Ohio would lead to a “handsome victory” in Pennsylvania in April. “Then I think she will become the favorite again and go on and win this thing.”

Which makes this op-ed by Robert Novak in today’s Washington Post particularly interesting.  Writing under the headline “Who Will Tell Hillary?” Novak observes, “The Democratic dilemma recalls the Republican problem, in a much different context, 34 years ago, when GOP graybeards asked: “Who will bell the cat?” — or, go to Richard Nixon and inform him that he had lost his support in the party and must resign the presidency. Sen. Barry Goldwater successfully performed that mission in 1974, but there is no Goldwater facsimile in today’s Democratic Party (except for Sen. Ted Kennedy, who could not do it because he has endorsed Obama).”

John Judis has a lengthy profile of Barack Obama in the recent issue of The New Republic.

Stuart Rothenberg takes the gloves off and writes about the contradictions between Obama’s message and his record.   “Maybe if Obama wraps up the Democratic nomination in the next few weeks, he’ll give all of us a better idea of what he’d really like to do as president. We can only hope so. Another eight months of soaring but empty rhetoric about bringing people together and bringing about change will leave most of America brain-dead.”

Mike Allen of The Politico scoops an upcoming New York Magazine cover featuring Chelsea Clinton. Allen writes on his blog that the cover story “couldn’t be any more flattering if Philippe [Reines, Clinton’s Senate Press Secretary] had sat down and created it on a Mac — “Chelsea’s Morning: The Clinton heiress finally steps up to the mike — and proves she’s a natural.”

UPDATE. 

Here’s the full profile.

Writing for the Seattle Times, Steven Thomma offers a perspective, “Clinton of the ropes: How she got there.”

In the New York Times, a front page story from Patrick Healy who notes, “The campaign’s chief strategist, Mark Penn, and its communications director, Howard Wolfson, have expressed frustration with the difficulty of “running against a phenomenon” in Senator Barack Obama; their attacks have not stopped Mr. Obama from winning the last 11 contests. Some aides said Mr. Penn and the former campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, had conceived and executed a terribly flawed campaign, something Ms. Solis Doyle disputes.”

Maureen Dowd and Frank Rich both take the Clinton campaign to the woodshed for campaign strategy and spending.

According to Politicalwire, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, a Clinton supporter, spoke unfavorably of the Clinton campaign in a recent speech.

Andrew Romano of Newsweek assesses Obama’s surge in Texas and notes Obama’s advantage financially and among early voters and African-American voters could be enough to win the Lone Star State.

Jonathan Alter, also of Newsweek, writes in this week’s issue: “Hillary Should Get Out Now.

John Harris and Mike Allen of The Politico write that the Clinton campaign is divided on strategy.