Little Rock native Tyler Denton is coordinating Senator Hillary Clinton’s election night party at the famous Hotel Fort Des Moines in Des Moines, Iowa.

The hotel is rich in political history.  John Kennedy campaigned there in 1960 and Richard Nixon in 1972.  Nikita Kruschev stayed at the Hotel Fort Des Moines in 1959 when he traveled to Iowa to inspect its agriculture.  Charles Lindbergh spent the night there in 1927.  Woodrow Wilson lobbied for America’s inclusion in the League of Nations in 1919 and spent the night at the hotel.  Walter Mondale,  George H.W. Bush and Bob Dole all celebrated wins in Iowa at the Fort Des Moines.

The Clinton School of Public Service is hosting a watch party for the Iowa Caucuses on January 3rd at the school.  You need to make a reservation and you can get that information here.  I’ve got it on good authority that the following folks will be calling in throughout the night:

Rodney Slater, former Secretary of Transportation
Chris Hull, adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown and author of “Grassroots Rules: How Iowa Helps Elect American Presidents”
Mary Jacoby, staff writer, Wall Street Journal
Hogan Gidley, El Dorado native, former tennis buddy, former Huckabee staffer and Executive Director of the Republican Presidential Primary Task Force in South Carolina
Sheila Bonfman, coordinator of the Arkansas Travelers
Mary Rutherford, sister, press liaison for Radio Iowa
Tyler Denton, all around campaign event master planner

And don’t be surprised if the phone rings and on the other end is one of the following:

George Stephanopoulos, ABC News and anchor of This Week
Karl Rove, former senior advisor to President George W. Bush
General Wesley K. Clark, former NATO Supreme Commander and 04 Presidential candidate
I’m told the list is still developing . . .

Hendrix professor Jay Barth will be blogging for the Arkansas Times in Iowa.  Clinton School of Public Service student James Mitchell is blogging as well.

Got any thoughts?  Someone should call down to the Ole Miss Athletic Department Office and ask.  1-800-467-3235. 

“EMILY’s List also is trying a new technique developed with the help of Google to reach female voters there, especially those who are unsure how to navigate the state’s complex caucus system. Whenever someone in Iowa searches online for “recipe,” “stocking stuffer” or “yoga,” for instance, a banner will pop up inviting the searcher to visit a website supporting Clinton,” reports Tom Hamburger and Dan Morain of the Los Angeles Times.

It could spell doom or redemption depending on the party.  This is the observation of David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register.  For the Democrats, Yepsen says third place is the “dead zone.”  For the Republicans, third place would “give them [McCain, Giuliani, Thompson and Paul] a little boost into New Hampshire and the subsequent contests - and winnow out the fourth-, fifth- and sixth-place winners.”

“Mike Huckabee last year accepted $52,000 in speaking fees from a bio-tech giant that wants to research human embryonic stem cells, a non-profit working to expand access to the morning after pill and a group pushing to study whether tightening gun control laws will reduce violence,” reports The Politico.

“It raises questions as to his philosophical positions,” [American Conservative Union Executive VP Bill] Lauderback asserted, “if he is accepting very lucrative speaking fees from special interest groups who have a markedly different perspective on certain social issues from what he is projecting as a candidate.”

“The speaking and book circuits helped Huckabee, whose salary during his decade as governor never topped $79,000, make ends meet – both before and after he left the governor’s mansion early this year. According to state and federal public records, he pulled in more than $405,000 since 2004 in honoraria, books sales, consulting and outside income through 12 Stops, Inc. a company set up that year to manage his private sector business,” the article notes.

IOWA

Democrats
Hillary Clinton - 31%
John Edwards - 25%
Barack Obama - 22%

Republicans
Mike Huckabee - 36%
Mitt Romney - 28%
Fred Thompson - 10%
John McCain - 8%
Rudy Giuliani - 8%

Source: Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg, Dec. 20 - 23, 26.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Democrats
Barack Obama - 32%
Hillary Clinton - 30%
John Edwards - 20%

Republicans
Mitt Romney - 34%
John McCain - 20%
Rudy Giuliani - 17%
Mike Huckabee - 12%

Source: Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg, Dec. 20-23, 26.

“Yesterday my understanding was is that (Edwards) said he did not approve of 527s, these independent groups where there’s no disclosure so you don’t know who’s funding them and how much is being spent,” Obama said today during an interview with Radio Iowa. “We find out today that a 527 run by his former campaign manager and political director is running three-quarters of a million dollars worth of ads on his behalf and it strikes me that if you say yesterday you don’t agree with ‘em and today you’re benefiting from them — that’s not consistent,” notes Barack Obama in a report filed by O. Kay Henderson and Mary Rutherford for Radio Iowa. 

“Pakistan opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was assassinated Thursday by an attacker who shot her after a campaign rally and then blew himself up. Her death stoked new chaos across the nuclear-armed nation, an important U.S. ally in the war on terrorism.At least 20 others were also killed in the attack on the rally for Jan. 8 parliamentary elections where the 54-year-old former prime minister had just spoken,” according to the Associated Press.

“Ms. Bhutto, who had twice been the country’s prime minister and was a leading contender to be the next prime minister after elections set for Jan. 8, was declared dead by doctors at a hospital in Rawalpindi at 6:16 p.m. local time. At least a dozen more people were killed in the attack, and some reports said there were at least 20 dead. Hours later, her body was carried out of the hospital in a pale yellow casket, held high by hundreds of her followers clad in black,” reports The New York Times.

Here is comprehensive coverage from Slate.

David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register has a column about dealmaking in the days leading up to the Iowa Caucuses. He reminded us that the Kucinich and Edwards people cut a deal on caucus day in 2004, and it helped propel Edwards to a second place finish in Iowa. Yepsen writes, “The question then is, what do the Richardson, Biden and Dodd people do? Most will make up their own mind. It’s why the second choice preferences of their supporters are so important.”

Remember, only Democrats play this game. Republicans simply conduct a straw poll and the numbers are announced. No election night jockeying at their caucus sites.  Still, turnout for both is critical.

Democrats
Hillary Clinton - 34%
John Edwards - 20%
Barack Obama - 19%

Republicans
Mike Huckabee - 23%
Mitt Romney - 21%
John McCain - 17%
Rudy Giuliani - 14%

Source:  American Research Group, Dec. 20-23. 

I’ve been suggesting for a few days now that John McCain has the best shot at winning the Republican nomination.

Think about it.  Mitt Romney’s numbers are declining all over the country, especially in Iowa and New Hampshire where he has to win.  Evangelicals, an important component of the Republican party base, are suspect about him.  Fred Thompson’s campaign (one that should be in real contention right now) never went anywhere.  Rudy Giuliani’s positions on abortion and gay rights (not to mention his multiple marriages) are a lot for the GOP faithful to handle.

That only leaves former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and McCain.  In the battle of those two, McCain has the most staying power.  Huckabee’s been on the rise likely, and appears poised to win Iowa in one of the biggest surprises in recent memory.  But as I’ve suggested from the beginning, Huckabee’s going to be out of money after Iowa.  A third place finish or worse in New Hampshire (he’s polling 4th behind McCain, Romney and Giuliani)  could cause his numbers in Florida and Michigan to plummet.

McCain, on the other hand, seems to be peaking at the right time.  He’s climbed into third place in the latest Iowa polls and is in a dead heat with Mitt Romney in New Hampshire (both are polling at 26%).  He has a distinguished career both as a war hero and U.S. Senator.  He’s as conservative as they come, and while the Republican Party has his reservations about him (especially on matters such as campaign finance reform), he’s as good of a shot as they have to unite the Party, at least in my view.

Robert Novak argues a similar position in his column today.
“Sen. John McCain, given up for dead a few weeks ago as he ran a cash-starved, disorganized campaign, today is viewed by canny Republican professionals as the best bet to win the party’s presidential nomination. What’s more, they consider him their most realistic prospect to buck the overall Democratic tide and win the general election. Indeed, if Mike Huckabee holds on to actually win the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, the road forward could be clear for McCain,” writes Novak.

He continues, “. . . his nomination would result from him being the last man standing, with all other candidates falling. Rudy Giuliani’s baggage is getting too heavy to carry. Fred Thompson never got started. Huckabee’s Republicanism is even less orthodox than McCain’s and seems unviable beyond Iowa. Romney is burdened with anti-Mormon prejudice and the accusation he is “plastic.”"

For a mere 48 hours for everyone to enjoy a brief Christmas holiday.  They’ll be back up and running on Wednesday, reports the Washington Post.  Mary Rutherford, in Iowa covering the caucuses, has retreated to northern Missouri for a brief Christmas break.

So on that note, I will sign off until Wednesday, wishing you all a very happy holiday.  The Iowa Caucuses are on January 3rd, and I strongly urge those of you in Little Rock to head over to the Clinton School of Public Service for the Caucus-watching party.  I’m told there will be some very interesting folks checking in throughout the night.  Make your reservations now.