Blakes Think Tank

New IA, NH and SC Polls; Hillary maintains leads

Iowa

Democrats
Hillary Clinton - 28%
Barack Obama - 23%
John Edwards - 20%
Bill Richardson - 13%

Republicans
Mitt Romney - 27%
Rudy Giuliani - 17%
Mike Huckabee - 14%
Fred Thompson - 13%
New Hampshire

Democrats
Hillary Clinton - 37%
Barack Obama - 17%
John Edwards - 14%

Republicans
Mitt Romney - 27%
Rudy Giuliani - 23%
John McCain - 12%
Mike Huckabee - 9%
Fred Thompson - 8%

South Carolina

Democrats
Hillary Clinton - 32%
John Edwards - 24%
Barack Obama - 21%

Republicans
Rudy Giuliani - 26%
Fred Thompson - 21%
John McCain - 12%
Mitt Romney - 9%
Mike Huckabee - 9%

Source:  American Research Group.

Fred Thompson to announce he’s in today

“Fred Dalton Thompson will tell his supporters that he is running for president today in a 4 p.m. conference call with 800 to 1,000 elected and party officials from around the country,” reports The Washington Post.

New Iowa Poll

Democrats
John Edwards - 32%
Hillary Clinton - 24%
Barack Obama - 22%
Bill Richardson - 13%

Source: Time Magazine

Let there be lights

Yesterday evening I sat at the bar at Vermillion with a friend and watched several city trucks installing lights under the Interstate 30 onramp and offramp in the River Market. The lights were a response to a barrage of emails sent around town yesterday initiated by Corey Liddle in response to a very true incident related to his friend Brandon Harris. Mr. Harris was carkjacked, beaten , robbed and shot last week.

For what it’s worth, more lights are a very good thing. I’ll disagree with LRPD Chief Stuart Thomas who said, “this is the sort of thing that happens when an irresponsible idiot gets access to the internet” in the Arkansas Democrat Gazette this morning.

Actually, the sort of thing that happens when citizens become aware about an issue is, generally, a positive response from government. In this case, people were made aware of the incident regarding Mr. Harris. That led to more lights in traditionally dark places downtown. Maybe it will lead to more cops patrolling the streets too. All of that is good for the city.

Yes, Mr. Riddle sensationalized some facts, and he subsequently apologized. But he’s not an idiot for wanting to protect others from the same kind of harm his friend Brandon Harris faced.

Chertoff to replace Gonzalez?

That seems to be the buzz on the web.  Today, Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani praised Chertoff according to The Detroit News.  ” Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani suggested Monday before a fundraiser here that President Bush might want to look to Michael Chertoff, whom Giuliani once hired, when seeking a replacement for embattled outgoing Attorney General Alberto Gonzales.”

Hillary Clinton picks up United Transportation Union endorsement

“The United Transportation Union on Tuesday endorsed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton for the Democratic nomination for president, the first national union endorsement of the 2008 campaign,” reports The Washington Post.

IAFF to endorse . . .Chris Dodd?

In a rather interesting move, the International Association of Firefighters will endorse Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd.  “The Connecticut senator is an old ally, and authored what’s probably the most important piece of legislation in a decade for the IAFF: The 2000 FIRE Act, which channels federal money to local fire departments,” reports The Politico.

Tim Johnson to make first public appearance

South Dakota Senator Tim Johnson will make his first public appearance since suffering a brain hemmorage late last year.  Johnson indicated to USA Today that he would seek re-election in 2008.

Downtown Safety - UPDATE

UPDATE III: The Arkansas Times has been all over this story and they’ve confirmed what I wrote in Update I. The rape spree and the multiple killings simply didn’t happen. According to the Times interview withLRPD spokesman Terry Hastings, “He said there have been no rapes in the area generally known as the River Market Neighborhood, roughly between Cumberland and the Clinton Library and the Arkansas River and Capitol Avenue since the first of the year. There have been no slayings. No woman has been kidnapped.”

UPDATE IV: I just received important confirmation that much of the information contained in the above e-mail was false. I want to make sure that everyone understands that while the incident related to Mr. Harris is serious, there is not a rampant crime wave at work downtown. Here’s an e-mail I received from city hall:

This is pure fabrication, it did not happen, nor is the reference true to this sort of thing happening 4 times previously. Mr. Harris was robbed and the detectives are zealously working his case. They have some very good leads and believe the suspects are in NLR. Please pass the correct information on. Thank you.

As such, I have removed the e-mail. But I am posting this e-mail:

FOLLOWUP E-MAIL FROM THE MAN WHO STARTED IT ALL:

PLEASE FORWARD THIS EMAIL ALONG TO EVERYONE THAT COULD HAVE RECEIVED THE PREVIOUS ONE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

First I have to say that I am overwhelmed and awed by the speed at which things travel!

Second, and most importantly:
I just had a great conversation with Lt. Terry Hastings of the Little Rock Police Department. Lt. Hastings was kind enough to fill in the voids in my story and correct the errors that had been provided to me, which I forwarded along to each of you. It now appears that some of what I stated, with exception of that of my own friend, were small details with compounded exaggeration as it made its way from origin to my own ears. Meaning, insignificant details and theories were combined and told to me as fact.

There have been a total of 15 robberies in the area this year. That is fact. The LRPD has been able to solve the majority of which. With regards to my friend’s case, the LRPD is working feverously to secure all leads and make an arrest.

The young woman I spoke of, was not in fact raped or brutally beaten, but simply robbed (this is a classic case of the old telephone game, details being added by the time it made it to me).

Hastings went on to state that, of course, there is no media conspiracy. I have to admit that with the prior 14 robberies in the area, I mentally discarded them and moved along. But when this most recent event took place, it hit too close to home and we all naturally start questioning why we haven’t heard anything about it yet. [Editor’s note: It was widely reported. You can lead folks to media, but you can’t make them read.] Had all 14 incidents taken place within a very small time frame, there would have been a media frenzy. But being distanced the way they were, I’m sure we all fast forwarded straight to the weather and never noticed.

As far as accusing the mayor and media of covering things up, this was poorly worded on my behalf! And quickly pointed out to me!!! This was simply posed as a question. A question with an underlying anger of now being afraid to venture out of my own backyard. I will be the first to admit that in situations like this, I become outraged, pound the table, and want to know who let this happen.

Lt. Hastings, I apologize for the circus this created in your office, but I am certainly impressed by the importance and priority that you all laid on this. After speaking with Lt. Hastings, I was actually ashamed of myself. Not for sending the email, but for not having the same reaction, response, and demand for change for the first 14 victims.

This just goes to show that email does in fact progress faster than a police investigation! Again, please share this, and trust that when bad things happen, the news WILL let us know.

Humbly,

Corey Riddle

There has also been some good chatter on the Ark. Times blog.  Here’s a relevant exchange about what’s going on:

Max,

While certainly good news about the other rumored incidents in the River Market, I am not so sure that two confirmed carjackings in the last 13 days in our city’s main entertainment district will assuage many fears. While murders are blessedly down in Little Rock overall, I have seen a huge spike in smaller, property related crimes in my little corner of the Hillcrest world. I think the totality of circumstances involving crime in Little Rock, and not just these reports from the River Market, make people a little edgy.

Jesse Gibson

ARK. BLOG: Thanks and agreed. I am far more concerned about the workaday quality of the Little Rock burglar. They are legion and they are good. They seem to burgalarize with near impunity. It’s just a day at the office. Pop a front door with a crow bar. Grab the TV, computer, video games and anothing of obvious worth lying around and be gone in a twinkling. Some even do it in homes with security alarms, gone before anybody responds. It’s a feeling of utter powerlessness. The same for car burglaries, which are pandemic. And, yes, two carjackings in the same place are cause for real concern.

Bloomberg and Hagel?

David Broder has a column this week about the potential of a Michael Bloomberg - Chuck Hagel third party candidacy.  I’ve was all over this months ago, and suggested that if Bloomberg were to make a race of it, Chuck Hagel was the ideal running mate.

Attorney General Alberto Gonzales Resigns

“Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales, whose tenure has been marred by controversy and accusations of perjury before Congress, has resigned. A senior administration official said he would announce the decision later this morning in Washington,” reports The New York Times. 

A good time to be Rahm

US News and World Report has this report about Congressman Rahm Emanuel, the architect of the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives:

Seriously, folks, is it great being Rep. Rahm Emanuel or what? Best known for working to get Democrats back in control of the House in 2006 and a good bet to be speaker one day, the Chicagoan is the subject of a book and now two men’s fashion magazines. “It’s a great time to be with him,” says one associate. “He’s the man.” And, say friends, he’s arguably the most important and influential former aide to Bill Clinton in Washington. Consider: Emanuel’s being heralded in The Thumpin , a book that explores how the lawmaker won back the House. And this month, GQ puts him 17th in its list of the 50 most important people in Washington. And Esquire names him to its best-dressed list.

Romney solidifies lead in Iowa; Huckabee jumps ahead of McCain

Republicans
Mitt Romney - 33%
Rudy Giuliani - 14%
Fred Thompson - 12%
Mike Huckabee - 8%
John McCain - 6%

Source: Zogby/NewsMax

New Iowa Poll

Democrats
Hillary Clinton - 30%
John Edwards - 23%
Barack Obama - 19%
Bill Richardson - 10%

Source: Newsmax/Zogby

Senator Clinton’s visit to Arkansas

I caught the event at the ZOO, although reports are coming in from all over that every one of her events was a success. In Fayetteville, more than 200 people showed up for a coffee house visit on Dickson Street reports the Arkansas Times. The state legislators meeting, so I’m told, was a huge success. Rep. Steve Harrelson has some photos. At the ZOO, the crowd was big and diverse. Reports trickled in throughout the night that the event at the home of Kaki Hockersmith and Max Mehlburger was shoulder to shoulder.

Senator Clinton picked up Governor Beebe’s endorsement, giving her a lock on all of the statewide officers with the exception of Senator Blanche Lincoln who says she’ll endorse a candidate closer to February 5th.

Here’s the coverage of the event. Arkansas News Bureau. Northwest Arkansas Times.

Arkansas Democrat Gazette.

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