Political Movies

Here’s one I’m looking forward to. HBO purchased the film rights to Andrew Ross Sorkin’s terrific account of the financial crisis. According to Reuters, “HBO said Sorkin’s “Too Big to Fail” will be adapted for TV by Peter Gould, who has written episodes of the methamphetamine drama series “Breaking Bad” for cable network AMC.” This blog takes a shot at casting the roles. No word yet on when it will air.

 

My column this week for the Benton Courier focuses on the strange campaign rhetoric of Blanche Lincoln. It also examines the complexity of trumpeting seniority as a electoral advantage with particular emphasis on Ms. Lincoln’s implicit argument that her seniority – coupled with her Agriculture Committee chairmanship – allows her to deliver for her state. Anyway, you can read it on Friday. In the meantime, Democrats in the Senate have said they’ll begin electing committee chairmen next year. Does that mean Ms. Lincoln’s campaign line “I don’t answer to my party. I answer to Arkansas” will have negative ramifications?

 

It Can Always Be Worse

Just look to Kansas City, Missouri. The Board of Education voted yesterday to close 28 of 61 public schools in the district. 700 jobs were cut, including 285 teachers. The district was facing a $50 million budget deficit.

 

The Blair Interviews

The late Diane D. Blair conducted interviews with 120 members of Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign team. 64 of those interviews are now public and include conversations with James Carville, George Stephanopoulos, David Wilhelm, Bruce Reed, Patti Solis, Celinda Lake, Mickey Kantor, Stan Greenberg, Al From and Lisa Caputo.

 

Voter Intensity Favors Republicans

From Gallup:

Democrats have to hope that number increases, and many suspect that it will if health care reform passes. Also, according to Gallup,

Democrats lead Republicans by a slight 47% to 44% margin when registered voters are asked which party’s congressional candidate they would support in their district “if the elections for Congress were being held today.”

 

Man, Corey Haim is Dead

Corey Haim, 38, was found dead in his Hollywood apartment today of an apparent drug overdose. The years had passed him by, but when he was on, he was on. I spent a decent amount of evenings between the years 1986 – 1992 with Haim and, at times, his infamous counterpart, Corey Feldman: “Lucas,” “The Lost Boys,” “License to Drive,” “Dream a Little Dream,” and even “Blown Away,” which still makes an appearance on cable. It’s been 18 years since he made a watchable movie. Still, for the films noted above, I’ll pour one out.

 

Politico offers this feature on the emerging issue of climate change in the Arkansas Senate race. This piece focuses primarily on Sen. Blanche Lincoln and her recent efforts to block an EPA ruling that stated that greenhouse gases endanger human health and welfare. The Sierra Club launched a series of ads attacking her position and soon Friends of the Earth and Credo Action will put a billboard up in Little Rock claiming her to support corporate polluters. The League of Conservation Voters put her on its Dirty Dozen list, 12 incumbents it hopes to defeat this year.

Ms. Lincoln’s opposition to the cap-and-trade bill which has passed the U.S. House has endeared her to energy companies and agricultural interests. The reason for this, according to Kevin Book, a principal with ClearView Energy Partners, is “Arkansas is one of the top 10 hardest-hit states by any increase in fossil energy prices.” And the theory is that the cap-and-trade bill will drive energy costs up.

Her opponent, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, has yet to state a position on the cap-and-trade legislation. When it came up for a vote in the House the only Arkansas member to vote for it was Rep. Vic Snyder.

 

More Ads Against Health Care

The Chamber of Commerce has committed $10 million for a television anti-health care ad buy. Ads will begin running on national cable news and, get this, in congressional districts of Democrats who have not yet stated whether they will vote for or against the bill. Also, the Association for Health Insurance Plans announced a $1 million cable news buy.

The ad is below. It decries “special rules” which reconciliation is not and claims that premiums will go up despite ample evidence they will not. So much for accuracy.

 

The State of Health Care Reform

Not as one-sided as you might think. Ezra Klein of The Washington Post elaborates.

 

Maine State Sen. President Elizabeth “Libby” Mitchell is one of six candidates vying for the Democratic Party nomination for Governor in Maine. Arkansawyers will know her sister, Starr Mitchell, who plays in the band Lark in the Morning and is the husband of popular Little Rock Central High teacher George West.

Libby Mitchell picked up the endorsement of President Bill Clinton yesterday. In Maine, candidates that desire to be publicly funded must raise a minimum of $40,000 in seed money and $16,250 in qualifying contributions comprised of 3,250 $5 checks. So the endorsement by Mr. Clinton may have an impact. She has until April 1st to meet the requirements.

According to Maine political science professor Amy Fried:

Something like this perhaps makes her stand out and gets her a little bit of publicity at a particular moment here. All of a sudden it’s an occasion to do news stories that will discuss her candidacy.

 

In response to fellow Democratic candidate for Congress Chad Causey’s call for three debates, state Sen. Steve Bryles took the opportunity to cast the first negative comment of the campaign. Game on.

I sense that Chad Causey believes he has an advantage in debating the issues because he’s a Washington insider.  The warmed over approaches that Beltway types keep recycling are obviously not working; the country is in the middle of an economic crisis, health care is broken and the Washington politicians have mortgaged our children’s future. I look forward to offering new ideas and a fresh perspective against the same old conventional wisdom.


 

Via Arkansas Times:

 

NBC News and Slate both fact-checked the Senate health care bill and determined that it doesn’t permit the government funding of abortions.

Page 2,071-2,072:

If a qualified health plan provides coverage of services described in paragraph (1)(B)(i) — i.e., abortion — the issuer of the plan shall not use any amount attributable to [health reform's government-funding mechanisms] for purposes of paying for such services.

Page 2,069:

A State may elect to prohibit abortion coverage in qualified health plans offered through an Exchange in such State if such State enacts a law to provide for such prohibition.

Pages 2,072 – 2,074:

If a health insurer selling through the exchanges wishes to offer abortion coverage then the insurer must collect from each enrollee (regardless of sex or age) a separate payment to cover abortion. The insurer must keep this pool of money separate to ensure it won’t be commingled with so much as a nickel of government subsidy.

Previously, outgoing Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry, a Democrat, said he was opposed to the Senate bill because he fears that federal money will be used to pay for abortions. As re- told by John Brummett,

“I think abortion’s wrong,” Berry told me Friday morning. “The problem is that I’ve lived too long. When they say they can keep this money separate, I just don’t believe it.”

Currently, Michigan Rep. Bart Stupak, Mr. Berry and 10 other Democrats who voted in favor of the bill the first go-round have stated their opposition unless stronger anti-abortion language (i.e. the Stupak Amendment) is added. Sure, the amendment is superfluous, but that’s not stopping these folks from getting in the way of meaningful health reform. Make no mistake about it, these 12 Democrats can kill the bill.

 

Rachel Maddow of MSNBC will be in Little Rock on Monday, March 22nd to speak at the Clinton School of Public Service. She will also be hosting her television program, “The Rachel Maddow Show,” at a to-be-determined location in the city.

 

In a smart political move, Chad Causey has called for a series of debates in the first congressional district Democratic primary. He’s called for three debates on the economy, agriculture and health care.

“Now that the field is set, we need to have an open and honest discussion about the important issues facing Arkansans,” Causey said.  “I am campaigning for this office the same way I will work in it: as someone willing to sit down at the table, listen and engage in debate, so that we can find common-sense solutions to the problems facing the First District.”

Patrick Kennedy, David Boling or John Adams should have thought of this in the 2nd congressional district Democratic primary.

 

Michelle Obama to Speak at UAPB

First Lady Michelle Obama will be in Arkansas on May 8th to speak to the graduating class of the University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff.

 

In a post below you’ll see clarification by Sen. Blanche Lincoln that she stands opposed to using reconciliation in the health reform process. As I noted previously, I don’t get her position here. Standing against a commonly used (and transparent) procedure for a bill you supported originally is nonsensical.The issue – her support for health care reform – remains.

On Twitter, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter responded:

Bill: Just to be clear, I continue to support passing health care reform with a majority vote.

 

In a statement released by her office today, Sen. Blanche Lincoln reaffirmed her opposition to using the reconciliation process.

“Sen. Olympia Snowe and I have proposed a bipartisan way forward on health care and I still hope that my colleagues will consider it,” Lincoln said.  “I have promised my constituents that I will not support income tax increases to pay for health care and I will seek bipartisan solutions.  This takes budget reconciliation as an alternative means to pass health care reform off the table for me.  I have fought for and ensured transparency throughout this process, and I believe we must get over this final hurdle using the regular rules of the Senate.”

Reconciliation is a commonly used procedure, and has been a part of every major health reform process since the 1980s.

“In fact, the way in which virtually all of health reform, with very, very limited exceptions, has happened over the past 30 years has been the reconciliation process,” says Sara Rosenbaum, who chairs the Department of Health Policy at George Washington University.

As Ezra Klein of The Washington Post notes,

The real story lurking in these arguments is that reconciliation has become the normal process for many of the most important bills in recent years. The Bush tax cuts went through reconciliation. Welfare reform went through reconciliation. The Balanced Budget Act of 1997 went through reconciliation.

For the wonkish readers here’s a 2005 report from the Congressional Research Service on reconciliation.

 

It’s always entertaining to see national pundits try and make sense of Arkansas politics. Take the first congressional district, for example, where Democrats have been the dominant political party of decades. Congressional Quarterly, a national political publication and ratings service, had the district listed as a toss-up, a consequence of Rep. Marion Berry announcing his retirement. But with filing completed, CQ changed its mind and moved the district to “leans Democratic.”

The Democrats have six candidates in the primary: Chad Causey, Ben Ponder, state Rep. David Cook, state Sen. Steve Bryles, Terry Green and Tim Wooldridge.

The Republicans couldn’t convince state Rep. Davy Carter or state Sen. Johnny Key to run for the seat, and they’re left with unknown candidates Rick Crawford and Princella Smith.

It’s difficult to envision a scenario in which the Democratic nominee loses this race. The challenge, it seems, is predicting who will win the nomination. If we’re looking at name identification alone, the edge has to be with Mr. Wooldridge. 1st district voters have seen his name on the ballot twice in recent years. But if we’re looking at political strength, the edge rests with Mr. Causey, who has the support of Mr. Berry, his former boss and a political force in the district. One Democratic operative familiar with the race told me yesterday, “Chad’s the only candidate with personal connections in every county in the district.”

 

For it. Against it. For it. Well, maybe . . . Man, what’s going on in the Lincoln campaign?

Here’s the situation: Democrats in the Senate have been talking about using the reconciliation process to amend certain budgetary aspects of the health care reform bill. It’s a common practice, as E.J. Dionne noted in this Washington Post op-ed, by both political parties. For whatever reason, Sen. Blanche Lincoln emphatically opposed this process. Today, the AP reports that she’s re-thinking her position.

A moderate Democrat who had vowed to oppose any effort by party leaders to push a health care bill through the Senate with a simple majority vote is rethinking her position.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln said Tuesday that she wants to see what is in the companion bill before deciding.

I’ve never understood Ms. Lincoln’s political calculus on health care since her vote in favor of the bill. Voting against it now – or standing against reconciliation – does absolutely nothing for her politically. She married herself to health care reform when she voted for the original bill. The smart thing to do now would be to work towards a compromise, get something passed, and move on to other matters, like jobs. Democrats overwhelming favor health care reform, after all.