Blake's Think Tank

The Arkansas Election Line rates the 3rd Congressional district: Safe GOP

The Arkansas Election Line rates the GOP primate: Toss-up

The Arkansas Election Line rates the Democratic primary: Safe Whitaker

Blake’s Think Tank Analysis:

In the most heavily Republican congressional district in Arkansas 8 candidates are vying for the party’s nomination. State Sen. Cecile Bledsoe and Rogers Mayor Steve Womack have generated the most early headlines. Gunner DeLay, a former candidate for Attorney General, is on the ballot. These three candidates stand out among a field that also includes Boone Co. Judge Mike Moore, Kurt Maddox, Steve Lowry, Doug Mattayo and Bernie Skoch. With this many candidates in the field, a strong constituency is likely to secure a place in the run-off. Ms. Beldsoe and Mr. Rogers both come from the same city. Mr. DeLay stands out as the only candidate from the other side of the US 540 corridor, Ft. Smith. It’s a toss-up right now. We’ll be monitoring it closely to see if any candidates is able to break away from the pack.

On the Democratic side David Whitaker’s thrown his hat into the ring. He joins a long line of candidates who hope to pull of a political upset. His campaign is aggressive and is working hard. This district has changes so much since Bill Clinton nearly beat Rep. John Paul Hammerschmidt way back when. And that change has benefited every GOP candidate since.

Please check out Arkansas Election Line partners Talk Business and The Tolbert Report for more analysis.

Washington and Lee law professor Timothy Jost has conducted a thorough review of both the House and Senate health care reform bills with a careful eye on how each would impact abortion coverage. If you recall, 12 Democrats, including Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry, stated they were opposed to the Senate version of the bill because it didn’t contain enough protections against the federal funding of abortion. I debunked that myth in a previous post, and Mr. Jost, in his review, takes it one step further:

Section 1330(a) permits states to totally outlaw abortion coverage in policies issued through the exchange . . . The Senate provision would allow states with strong anti-abortion policies to ban coverage for these people as well as those who receive federal subsidies. The House bill does not explicitly permit this.

The Senate bill is also stronger than the House bill from a pro-life perspective in that it expands the adoption tax credit and the adoption assistance programs to make adoption a more attractive and available alternative.

Still, Mr. Berry expressed concern that the Senate version of the bill would do a poor job of preventing government funds that pay for health care and private funds that pay for abortion coverage separate. Mr. Jost replies:

The 1334 OMB program is intended to broaden the options that are available to enrollees through the exchanges, making local insurance markets more competitive. In effect it builds on the exchanges themselves to assure that individuals in the small and non-group market have a variety of tax-subsidized options available. If there is any change here, it is a change that will make abortion less available.

While employee-benefit plans (including small employer plans), currently subsidized by tax deductions and exclusions, often provide abortion coverage, the Senate bill, like the House bill, assures that federal tax credit will never pay for abortions, whether coverage is purchase through an OMB plan or otherwise through the exchange.

And as for the concern about the lack of the Stupack Amendment in the Senate, Ruth Marcus of The Washington Post notes that the language used by Sen. Ben Nelson in the Senate bill accomplishes the same thing but by referencing the existing Hyde Amendment which has been included in every health care bill since 1976.

Taken all together, the Senate bill is stronger from a pro-life perspective. Which makes rationalizing Mr. Berry’s position practically impossible.

UPDATE: Jason Tolbert of The Tolbert Report has a thoughtful response. Read it.

The Arkansas Election Line rates the 2nd Congressional District: Toss-Up.

The Arkansas Election Line rates the Democratic Primary: Leans Wills

The Arkansas Election Line rates the Republican Primary: Leans Griffin

Blake’s Think Tank Analysis:

The 2nd congressional district has been controlled by Democrats for almost 30 years. Most recently, Rep. Vic Snyder held the seat for seven terms. His decision to retire, made easier by the birth of triplets, cause national pundits to consider this race ripe for Republican take-over. After all, Sen. John McCain performed well in this district in 2008. So what? The only Democratic presidential candidate to win the 2nd district in Mr. Snyder’s tenure was Bill Clinton. National pundits have never fully grasped that presidential elections have little bearing at the local level. Often times, Arkansawyers are a happy band of ticket splitters.

The Democratic field, comprised of five candidates, is about a third of what I thought it would be. I believed that every Democrat living in the 8 county district with any political ambition would be on the ballot. Incumbency can be a powerful thing, and these jobs don’t open up very often. But I was mistaken. Gen. Wesley Clark, PSC Chairman Paul Suskie, state Sen. David Johnson, former state Rep. Will Bond, Little Rock attorney Bob Edwards and state Sen. Shane Broadway all passed on the race. That leaves House Speaker Robbie Wills, state Sen. Joyce Elliott, David Boling, John Adams and Patrick Kennedy vying for the seat. The first two are well-known in Democratic circles. Mr. Boling served for a time as Mr. Snyder’s chief of staff. And Mr. Adams and Mr. Kennedy, both bright-minded and capable, are aiming high in the first political races. There’s nothing wrong with that. Conventional wisdom suggests that Mr. Wills, with his Faulkner County constituency, his broad support at the state legislature and his moderate political views has the edge. Factor in a sizable fundraising structure (despite not raising funds during the session) and support from Mr. Suskie, and I’m inclined to agree with that wisdom. But none of the other candidates are to be discounted, particularly not Ms. Elliott who has been a long-standing champion of Democratic Party principles. A former school teacher and influential member of the education community, she picked off a state senate seat by beating the incumbent, Irma Hunter Brown, in a primary.  She will benefit from a number of competitive Democratic primaries in Pulaski County.

On the Republican side Tim Griffin, a former US Attorney and protege of Karl Rove, faces off against former radio host and resturateur Scott Wallace. Mr. Griffin’s campaign has been disciplined, active and, among GOP primary voters, effective. Mr. Wallace, on the other hand, was vocal early in the race, but seemed to quiet after Mr. Griffin announced that Warren Stephens, CEO of Stephens Inc., would serve as his finance chairman. All of the assets the Griffin campaign is developing – including a robust online network – will help him mobilize voters in the primary. That one of many reasons this race leans in his favor.

Overall, this race remains a toss-up. The tenor of the race (not to mention the issues) will vary somewhat depending on who wins the Democratic Party nomination. Nationally, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been after Mr. Griffin for his role in the US Attorney scandal, for voter suppression tactics in Florida during the 2000 election, and for the fabrications alleged in Mr. Rove’s new book. You’ll recall that Mr. Griffin sent some odd e-mails to Mr. Rove suggesting he would name his son “Karl.” Awkward. Democrats have traditionally done very well in the 2nd district. But Mr. Griffin’s running a smart primary campaign. In the general election, it will be up to the Democratic Party nominee to educate voters on the contrast between the two candidates. If that is done well, the Democrat will win.

More from The Arkansas Election Line partners Talk Business and The Tolbert Report.

Democratic pollster John Anzalone conducted a poll in 96 Democratic districts, including AR-01, AR02 and AR-04, about the health care reform bill. Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post obtained the report and notes the following:

* Nearly six in ten (59 percent) of voters in these districts support the idea of reforming the health care system and roughly that same number believe that the changes need to be made now.

* While 42 percent of voters in these districts initially support the health care bill that number jumps to 51 percent “after hearing about some of the benefits of the plan.”

* The best message arguments for Democrats to make in the wake of passage are: 1) the coverage of pre-existing conditions and 2) the fact that for the first time ever average people will be able to have the same health care plan as Members of Congress.

2nd congressional district candidate Patrick Kennedy today called on his opponents to agree to 8 debates, one in each county in the district. I  like this idea. We’ll see if the big two: House Speaker Robbie Wills and state Sen. Joyce Elliott agree.

Follow the link below for the entire release.

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Norman Ornstein and Thomas Mann, writing in The New Republic, offer this advice to Democrats:

[t]he surest path to political debacle for Democrats is to fail to enact health reform, and the best way to avoid a rout in November is to show that the party in charge can actually govern. The reconciliation process is entirely appropriate for amending the Senate-passed bill; in any case, the public will judge the Democrats on the basis of the results, not the inside-baseball process. In fact, the Democrats most reluctant to support health reform–those from more conservative, Republican-leaning districts and states–are the ones most likely to lose in November if health reform is defeated.

They reflect on 1994 and the failure of the Clinton administration to get health care reform passed.

To be sure, there were many reasons for Democrats’ massive losses in 1994, including scandals and angry gun owners. But the failure to fulfill their responsibility for governing contributed mightily to the debacle. That was the conclusion of pollsters from both parties in the aftermath of the November contests. Two weeks after the election, Republican pollster Bill McInturff found that “one of the most important predicates for Republican success was not having health care pass.” He noted that the collapse of the plan reinforced voters’ belief that Washington was in a dysfunctional state of gridlock. At the same time, Democratic pollster Mike Donilon, who worked on the losing campaign of Pennsylvania Senator Harris Wofford, said he believed that Wofford would have won had health reform passed.

Is Sen. Blanche Lincoln listening?

For MSNBC fans and left-leaning politicos: As I noted earlier, Rachel Maddow, host of “The Rachel Maddow Show” will be in Little Rock on Monday, March 22nd speaking at the Clinton School of Public Service. The event is from 9:00 a.m – 10:00 a.m. and is free to the public. Reservations can be made by e-mailing publicprograms@clintonschool.uasys.edu or by calling 501.683.5239.

She will also be filming her show that evening at an undetermined location in the city. I remember attending a live broadcast of “Morning Joe” at The Dubliner in Washington, D.C. during the Inauguration. Great atmosphere. I’m rooting for Doe’s in Little Rock to be the pick.

Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe filed his February disclosure form and reported having $1.3 million cash-on-hand. His opponent, Republican Jim Keet, did not report raising any money for his gubernatorial bid. A question remains whether Mr. Keet will invest personal money into the race. Also, with the RNC take an interest? As I noted yesterday, Mr. Keet is attempting to bring national issues into the race.